Holidaymakers face renewed uncertainty this summer as Brexit-era border checks and potential jet fuel shortages threaten European travel. The EU's new entry-exit system (EES), which requires biometric data from non-EU nationals, remains mired in confusion after its 10 April implementation deadline passed without full rollout.
Fuel supply concerns have escalated amid the Iran-Israel conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for a fifth of global oil and gas—still partially blocked. The International Energy Agency warns Europe has only six weeks of jet fuel reserves, and executive director Fatih Birol has warned of imminent flight cancellations if Middle Eastern shipments do not resume.
Airlines are divided on the risk. EasyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis stated, “We have no concerns,” while Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary cautioned that up to 10% of late-summer flights could be cancelled if shipping does not normalise. The trade body Airlines UK noted that British carriers currently see no disruption, partly due to diverse supply sources, but are lobbying for contingency measures such as relaxed airport slot rules.
Transport analysts remain sceptical. Andrew Lobbenberg of Barclays predicted a “blended impact of forced cuts in May, June and July from fuel shortages evolving to voluntary cuts later in the year in response to fuel prices.” Isabelle Gilks of Wood Mackenzie added that Europe can still import from the US, but prolonged disruption would lead to higher fares and route cuts rather than widespread grounding.
The UK’s heavy reliance on Kuwaiti jet fuel leaves it vulnerable, though short-term shocks are absorbed by the system’s flexibility. Holidaymakers booking flights are advised to monitor developments, as the situation hinges on the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and the reopening of Gulf shipping lanes.
