Australia's ambitious Aukus submarine deal faces significant hurdles as the United States struggles to build enough submarines for its own fleet, let alone for export. The US Navy has admitted it will not achieve a production rate of two Virginia-class submarines per year until 2032, years behind schedule and still insufficient to meet Aukus requirements.
The Aukus agreement, estimated to cost Australia A$368 billion by 2055, relies on the US supplying two second-hand Virginia-class submarines as an interim measure. However, US shipyards have consistently failed to meet build targets, producing only about 1.1 to 1.2 boats annually since 2022, leading to a growing backlog of ordered but unfinished submarines.
Australia's latest budget allocated an additional A$400 million to the Aukus program over three years, bringing the Australian Submarine Agency's total funding to A$2.13 billion through mid-2029. Canberra has also transferred A$2.76 billion to the US and A$863 million to the UK to bolster their submarine-building industrial bases.
Admiral Daryl Caudle, US Chief of Naval Operations, told a House appropriations subcommittee that production should reach two boats per year by the early 2030s. He expressed confidence in Aukus progress, noting milestones in Perth and integration of Australian personnel at Pearl Harbor. However, even achieving two per year falls short of the 2.33 boats needed to supply Australia without degrading US capabilities.
The US Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan, released this month, does not account for any additional submarines for Aukus, mentioning the program only in a footnote. A recent Congressional report highlighted persistent workforce shortages and production delays across major shipyards, warning that the industrial base has been unable to deliver ships on time despite adequate resources.
