In a provocative analysis, Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues that Europe must fundamentally rethink its approach to global competition, particularly with China. He contends that the traditional rule-based international order has given way to an age of 'un-order', where rules no longer matter, and Europe's adherence to outdated norms leaves it vulnerable.
Europe's Exposure to Chinese Dominance
Leonard highlights Europe's staggering dependence on China across critical sectors. From clean energy technologies like batteries and solar panels to defence supply chains, Chinese firms dominate. For instance, 80% of the global drone supply chain is Chinese, and 97% of the EU's magnesium—essential for fighter jets and munitions—comes from China. This dependency, he warns, could lead to coercion and deindustrialisation.
Failed Strategies and Half-Hearted Tariffs
The EU's recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles have been too low to incentivise Chinese firms to build factories in Europe. While a few BYD plants have emerged, Leonard argues that far more aggressive measures are needed. Without them, Europe risks a flood of cheaper Chinese products, accelerating deindustrialisation in regions like Baden-Württemberg, home to Mercedes and Porsche.
Leonard criticises European leaders who hope for Chinese investments that rarely materialise. He cites examples of Hungary and Spain, where promised technology transfers have not occurred. The EU must instead adopt a more assertive stance, mirroring China's own tactics.
A Toolkit for Survival
Leonard proposes several concrete measures. First, Europe should impose 30% across-the-board tariffs on Chinese goods, as suggested by France's Clément Beaune. Second, the EU's Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act could be used to limit the operations of Chinese tech giants like ByteDance and Tencent. Third, Europe could leverage its position in the Airbus supply chain by withholding software updates for Chinese commercial planes, grounding over half of their fleet.
Beyond trade, Europe must invest massively in green technologies, AI, and defence, while building strategic stockpiles of critical minerals. Political commitments to buy European-made batteries and exclude Chinese wind turbines from infrastructure projects are also essential.
Beyond China: Standing Up to the US
Leonard argues that these tools would also equip Europe to resist pressure from the US under Trump, whether over Greenland, Ukraine, or access to American technology. By learning to survive chaos rather than preserving order, Europe can better withstand the full range of threats in this new era.
