US Small Business Optimism Rises Despite Economic Headwinds
Across the United States, small businesses are demonstrating remarkable resilience and optimism, according to several key economic indicators. Despite facing persistent challenges, the latest data reveals a positive trend in sentiment and performance among the nation's 33 million small firms.
Multiple Indexes Show Consistent Improvement
The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), which has been tracking small business economic trends for over half a century, reported a second consecutive monthly increase in optimism as 2025 concluded. Their December survey, based on approximately 300,000 member firms, indicated that business owners anticipate generally favorable economic conditions extending into 2026.
Notably, the NFIB data showed moderation in cost pressures, easing employment challenges for most sectors, and increased capital investments. The organisation's economists highlighted a "welcome improvement in uncertainty" regarding major 2025 pain points.
Sales Growth and Consumer Resilience
Fiserv's Small Business Index, which aggregates consumer spending data from point-of-sale transactions across about 2 million US small businesses, revealed monthly sales increases in December compared to the previous month.
"December's sales gains show the resilience of small businesses during a competitive holiday season," observed Prasanna Dhore, Chief Data Officer at Fiserv. "Consumers focused on essentials and made selective discretionary purchases, driven by ongoing cost pressures. These patterns, resulting in modest monthly sales growth, highlight how small businesses continue to adjust in a challenging economic climate."
Confidence in Future Growth
Comerica Bank's Small Business Pulse Index, surveying over 1,000 small-business owners nationwide, found that 80% of respondents in mid-November expressed confidence about their business outlook for the coming twelve months. Furthermore, 79% anticipated revenue growth in 2026, projecting an average increase of 7.9%.
The survey revealed that technology and construction firms led in optimism, while sole proprietors and retail businesses exhibited more caution. Approximately 57% of businesses planned capital expenditures, and more than half reported positive effects from recent Federal Reserve rate cuts on their operations.
Employment and Revenue Gains
Intuit's Small Business Index, derived from transactions across more than 420,000 small businesses in their database, showed modest employment increases in January. Employment rose in eight of twelve industry sectors, across all eight US regions, and in thirteen of twenty tracked states.
The index also reported revenue increases in all US regions compared to November, indicating broad-based improvement in small business performance.
Persistent Challenges Remain
Despite these positive indicators, significant challenges persist for many small businesses. The NFIB reports that agricultural firms struggle with tariffs and dramatically higher costs, while some retailers face slower sales and increased competition from large chain stores.
Many transportation companies contend with increased regulations, and service firms find it difficult to convince consumers to spend when other prices remain elevated. Comerica's survey indicates that small businesses remain concerned about inflation, tariffs, and regulations, with most expecting tariff impacts to persist or worsen in 2026.
Finding qualified talent continues to be a persistent issue for many small enterprises, while the rising cost of healthcare creates substantial pressures for both companies and their employees.
The Entrepreneurial Spirit Endures
Running a small business has never been easy, and if it were, more people would undertake the challenge and remain in business longer than just a few years. However, the overall picture emerging from multiple data sources suggests that US small businesses performed reasonably well throughout 2025.
A significant majority now express optimism about the coming year, reflecting perhaps the characteristic glass-half-full attitude of American entrepreneurs. While challenges undoubtedly remain, the latest numbers paint a picture of resilience and cautious optimism across the small business landscape.
