Traders placed a series of bets worth $430 million on a drop in crude oil prices just 15 minutes before Donald Trump announced an extension to the ceasefire with Iran, new data has revealed. This marks the third time this month, and the fourth occasion overall, that large, well-timed directional bets on the oil price have been executed shortly before major announcements regarding the conflict in Iran.
Details of the Suspicious Trades
According to LSEG data, between 7.54pm and 7.56pm GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of selling hit the oil market, worth a combined $430 million based on the prevailing Brent futures price. Trump announced the indefinite extension of the ceasefire at 8.10pm GMT. The Brent market settles at 6.30pm GMT, meaning these trades occurred during post-settlement hours when volumes are typically extremely limited.
The trades had a minimal immediate impact on the price, which edged down to $100.66 per barrel from $100.91 before they took place. However, after Trump's announcement, Brent crude futures fell sharply to a low of $96.83 within the following minute. They were last trading at $99.2 per barrel at 12pm GMT on Wednesday.
Previous Suspicious Trades
This pattern of suspicious trading has been observed repeatedly. On March 23, just 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million on a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million went through just hours before Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire. On April 17, approximately 20 minutes before the Iranian foreign minister posted on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping, traders placed $760 million in bets on a falling oil price.
In total, April's bets have amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, with one combined wager in March worth $500 million.
Investigation and Concerns
The US is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the war in Iran, according to a person familiar with the matter. A spokesperson for the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) declined to comment.
White House staff were warned last month that they should not wager on financial markets using non-public information, a White House official told the Daily Mail. Though it did not explicitly mention Iran, the notice came amid the conflict, indicating concern from senior White House officials that some within the administration could leverage their positions to gain an edge on betting platforms.
Popular prediction market sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become hotbeds for gamblers trying to profit on everything from sports to Trump's statements to potential US ground troop deployments in Iran. Amid the surge in gambling and prediction markets have come suspicions that those in the highest echelons of government are using private, potentially classified information to beat the odds.
Scale of the Trades
Before Trump delayed a deadline for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, billions of dollars of oil and stock futures changed hands. Contracts for at least six million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude were sold at around 6.50am that day — roughly ten times the daily average. At 7.05am, President Trump announced that the US wanted to negotiate with Iran, causing oil prices to drop sharply by about 14 percent in a matter of minutes.
No Trump administration official has been implicated in any wrongdoing. However, the prospect that insider traders could be profiting from highly classified secrets from the heart of the Oval Office during the Iran war poses a significant security and ethical question.
Expert Reaction
Matt Saincome, CEO of Unusual Whales, a platform that detects anomalous trading activity, stated that the data demands an investigation. 'I can say the data here demands an investigation,' Saincome said, referring to March 23. 'Regulators should explain to the public what happened here.' He added, 'I would love to be in the room when this trader explains what happened here. If the trader is never asked to explain, I would love to be in the room when the regulators are asked why the hell not.'
Saincome noted that the suspicious timing does not necessarily mean the trades were illegal. White House Spokesman Kush Desai told the Daily Mail, 'All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit.' Executive branch ethics regulations prohibit government employees from engaging in gambling activity while on government property or while on duty. Still, the massive scale of the trades makes the concerns difficult to dismiss.
