State pensioners across the UK are on course to receive weekly payments of up to £250.70 from next April following a triple lock boost. The Government raises State Pension rates at the start of every new tax year on April 6, with the increase being determined by the triple lock.
The triple lock is a UK Government guarantee that the State Pension will rise every April by whichever of the three key measures is highest. These are the consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation (measured for September of the previous year) and average wage growth between May and July of the previous year, at 2.5%.
Current rates and forecast increase
For the 2026/27 tax year, both the new and basic State Pensions increased in line with average wage growth, as this was the highest out of the three measures at 4.8%. The change took the full new State Pension up to its current rate of £241.30 per week, while the full basic State Pension is currently worth £184.90 per week.
Early forecasts suggest that average earnings are again likely to drive next year’s State Pension triple lock increase, boosting current rates by 3.9%. According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), average wage growth for total earnings was 3.9% for the period between May and July 2026, exceeding the 2.5% minimum floor increase.
Inflation outlook and potential payments
While the inflation figure for September isn’t due to be published until October, the ONS said CPI inflation rose to 3.1% in August, up from 2.9% in July. Economists predict inflation will continue to rise over the coming months as conflict in the Middle East pushes up the cost of living, but unless it exceeds 3.9%, the average wage growth figure is likely to be used to set next year’s State Pension rates.
So if the 3.9% earnings growth figure is used as the triple lock measure to set the 2027/28 State Pension rates, this would add £9.40 per week to the full new State Pension, taking it to £250.70, giving pensioners an annual boost of £488.80. As for the full basic State Pension, a 3.9% increase would add £7.20 per week to payments, bringing the rate to £192.10 and giving pensioners an annual boost of £374.40.
Expert views and tax implications
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “According to the ONS, average wage growth stood at 3.9%. We may have just over a month to wait until the relevant inflation figure is published, but it currently stands at 2.9%, so unless there’s a real surge it seems likely that the average wage figure will be used.
“Such an increase would put someone on the full new state pension on course to receive £250.70 a week from next April – up from the current £241.30 per week. Someone on a full basic state pension would receive £192.10 a week – up from £184.90.
“This will be a welcome boost to pensioner incomes but even a full state pension is only ever going to cover the basics. If you want to live well in retirement, then you will need to take your pension planning into your own hands.”
As the personal tax allowance has been frozen at £12,570 since 2021, it means state pensioners will be caught within the tax net for the first time. So far, the Government has said pensioners who are wholly dependent on the new State Pension – with no private pension – or the old basic State Pension, “with no increments”, will not have to pay tax, but it is still unclear exactly how the policy will work. The government is expected to set out further detail in the Budget on October 28.
Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, said: “Although we still need to see September’s inflation figure and any revisions to July’s earnings growth before we know for definite how much it will increase by in 2027, it’s looking very likely that the value of the full new State Pension will surge past £13,000 – and the personal allowance – for the first time.”
She added: “The Government has said people in receipt of State Pension income only above the personal allowance will not have to pay income tax on the benefit, although details on exactly how this will work remain thin on the ground.
“Up to now, politicians of all stripes have pledged allegiance to the triple lock. But as Chancellor John Healey drafts Budget plans on how the UK can face up to its fiscal challenges, it could be that cracks in this cast-iron support may start to show.
“The longer this unexploded fiscal bomb is left untouched, the harder it will be to defuse – and the greater the chance proposed State Pension age increases will need to be accelerated to balance the books.”
