The UK has agreed a boost in gas pipeline imports from Europe to avoid a potential supply shortfall this winter, with costs of £147 million possibly being passed on to customer bills.
Ofgem, the energy regulator, said Britain would face a "negative supply margin" this winter without intervention if there were a day so cold that it occurs only once in 20 years. The watchdog added: "The position could become more constrained in future winters without intervention. While these are low-probability stress scenarios, their potential consequences are significant."
Cost impact on bills
Ofgem said the £147 million cost could be passed on to customers, adding an estimated £1.19 to every domestic energy bill per year over a five-year period. The regulator will consult on how to pay for the interconnector between Belgium and Britain.
Jack Presley Abbott, director of energy systems management and security at Ofgem, said: "Maintaining these important gas links is important as longer-term changes to the energy system continue. We have approved the agreement needed to maintain this important capability, and, as such, are consulting on the proposed regulatory mechanism for recovering its costs."
Declining imports and winter outlook
Gas imports to Britain via interconnectors with Europe have declined in recent years because of costs and technical constraints, although such links can play an important role in meeting demand during periods of high consumption. The capacity of the interconnector between Belgium and Britain has been reduced because of rising fixed maintenance and operation costs.
National Gas, in its 2026 winter outlook, said Great Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply capability to meet forecast demand this winter. Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: "Our analysis shows that Great Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply capability to meet demand throughout winter 2026-27, even under a range of very unlikely high-stress scenarios."
He added: "This is a positive outcome, supported by the diversity of Britain's gas supply landscape, the resilience of our infrastructure and the coordinated actions taken across industry, Government and regulators over the past year. The analysis continues to demonstrate the critical role that gas, and the gas network, plays in safeguarding our country's energy security. As Britain's electricity system becomes increasingly reliant on weather-dependent renewable generation, the flexibility and reliability provided by gas remains critical to maintaining energy security and keeping the lights on when renewable output is low."
The plans, outlined by Ofgem on Thursday, came a day after Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh approved the controversial Jackdaw gas field.
