Investment bank JP Morgan has published a critical map forecasting when final shipments of Gulf oil will reach global destinations, with the United Kingdom facing its last delivery as early as next week. The analysis indicates that "most deliveries" to the UK and much of Europe will cease on April 10, following Iran's blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz that began on February 28.
Global Supply Shock and Stock Depletion
JP Morgan analysts warn the global oil system is undergoing a fundamental shift from a flow shock to a stock depletion problem. This means existing reserves are being steadily drained, with timing becoming as crucial as volume in determining the impact. The map shows the last tanker departed the Strait of Hormuz on February 28, the day hostilities commenced, with maritime traffic largely grinding to a halt thereafter.
Regional Disparities in Supply Cuts
While the UK and Europe face their final shipments around April 10, other regions are experiencing even earlier cutoffs. Various areas across Asia and parts of Africa are being shut out from April 1. In contrast, the United States expects deliveries to end on April 15, though shortages there are considered unlikely due to substantial domestic oil production.
Soaring Fuel Prices at UK Forecourts
The crisis has triggered dramatic price increases across the UK. According to RAC analysis, diesel prices have rocketed to their highest level since December 2022, with the average cost per litre reaching 181.2p on Monday. This represents a staggering 27 percent increase since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
Average petrol prices have climbed to 152.0p per litre, marking a 14 percent rise from 132.8p since February 28. Brent crude, the international oil price benchmark, surged more than 3 percent to $117 a barrel during Monday morning trading, hitting levels unseen since 2022.
Government Response and Industry Briefing
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has summoned senior figures from the energy, shipping and banking sectors to Number 10 to address Iran's ongoing blockade. Representatives from companies including Shell, BP, shipping giant Maersk, maritime insurance specialist Lloyd's of London, and banks HSBC and Goldman Sachs were briefed that the Government is developing a "viable plan" for the Strait of Hormuz situation.
European Context and Economic Uncertainty
Across Europe, while supply shortages are currently deemed improbable, motorists are expected to feel significant financial pressure through further price hikes. The crisis has driven up prices and triggered economic uncertainty worldwide, with analysts emphasizing that the transition from flow disruption to reserve depletion creates complex challenges for energy security and market stability.
