UK Fuel Stocks Plummet to 36% as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply Chains
Stocks of petrol and diesel at filling stations across the United Kingdom have experienced a significant decline since the onset of the Iran conflict, with official figures revealing concerning drops in fuel availability. The Department for Energy & Net Zero published data on Thursday showing how geopolitical tensions have begun to impact domestic fuel supplies.
Sharp Decline in Petrol Availability
In the four weeks preceding the conflict's commencement on February 28, petrol stock levels at UK garages maintained a relatively stable average ranging between 44% and 47%. However, the situation deteriorated markedly in the subsequent four weeks beginning March 1, with national averages plummeting to between 36% and 43%.
The most alarming development occurred on three specific days – March 4, 6, and 7 – when petrol stocks dropped to just 36%, representing the lowest level recorded since December 2022. These critical dates all fell within the early stages of the conflict, highlighting how quickly supply chains responded to geopolitical instability.
Regional Variations Reveal Uneven Impact
The data exposes substantial regional disparities in how the fuel shortage has manifested across different parts of the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland experienced the most severe depletion, with average petrol stock levels hitting a concerning low of 26% on March 28. Similarly, South West England recorded a troubling 31% on the same date.
By contrast, London demonstrated greater resilience with petrol stocks dipping only to 38%, while North West England maintained a slightly better position at 37% during the first four weeks of the conflict. These regional variations suggest that distribution networks and local demand patterns have created uneven vulnerabilities across the nation.
Diesel Stocks Follow Similar Pattern
Diesel availability tells a parallel story of disruption. In the four weeks leading up to February 28, diesel stocks remained relatively stable, averaging between 47% and 52%. However, from March 1 onward, a rapid decline occurred, with levels falling from 49% to just 37% by March 6.
While some recovery was observed in the second half of March, bringing averages back to approximately 42%, regional data reveals concerning hotspots. North East England and Scotland maintained relatively better positions with diesel stocks touching lows of only 41%. Meanwhile, the East Midlands, Northern Ireland, South West England, and the West Midlands all experienced more severe shortages, with levels falling as low as 35%.
Price Increases Compound Supply Concerns
Separate figures published by the RAC on Thursday reveal that fuel price increases are compounding the supply concerns. The average price of unleaded petrol has risen to 158.0p per litre, representing an increase of 25.2p or 19% since the conflict began. Diesel prices have experienced an even steeper climb, now averaging 191.1p per litre – a dramatic increase of 48.7p or 34% since the war's commencement.
The Department of Energy's figures are derived from regular snapshots of petrol and diesel levels taken from a representative sample of approximately 4,900 filling stations across the UK. This comprehensive monitoring covers more than four-fifths of typical fuel sales, providing a reliable indicator of national supply conditions.
As the Iran conflict continues to evolve, energy analysts will be closely monitoring whether fuel stocks can recover to pre-conflict levels or if further disruptions are likely in the coming weeks. The combination of depleted stocks and rising prices creates a challenging scenario for both consumers and businesses across the United Kingdom.
