Despite recent assurances from National Gas that the UK will have sufficient gas supplies this summer, the long-term energy outlook remains challenging. The summer months, when household heating is largely off, are not a stress point, as pipeline gas from the North Sea and Norway can meet virtually all demand. However, the real issues lie ahead, as the transition to renewables is slower than hoped and gas will remain a significant part of the energy mix for decades.
Government data shows gas demand was broadly stable in 2025, accounting for about half of the UK's 75.2% fossil fuel dependency. While gas for electricity generation is declining, domestic consumption—37% of total gas use in 2024—remains high, and replacing gas boilers with heat pumps is progressing slowly. The clean power 2030 plan also requires retaining 35 gigawatts of gas capacity as backup.
Oxford energy economist Sir Dieter Helm argues that the UK should avoid LNG, especially from the US, due to higher emissions. According to Wood Mackenzie, pipeline gas from Norway has the lowest carbon intensity, followed by UK North Sea gas. LNG, particularly US shale gas, has significantly higher emissions due to liquefaction, regasification, and methane leakage during fracking.
Wood Mackenzie forecasts that without increased domestic production, the UK could rely on US LNG for over 60% of its gas supplies by 2035, creating a risky dependency on a single country. The case for more North Sea drilling is twofold: to reduce reliance on the US, whose president uses energy as a foreign policy tool, and to avoid the greater emissions of LNG.
Critics argue that North Sea gas is sold on the international market, offering no security advantage. However, pipeline gas directly into the UK network is inherently more secure than transatlantic cargoes. Additionally, the UK could negotiate long-term fixed-price contracts with producers, as was done in the early years of North Sea development, ensuring stable and cleaner supplies.
