US scientists have confirmed the onset of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, a natural climate phenomenon that is expected to add heat to an already warming planet. The event, which occurs every two to seven years, sees warm waters rise off the coast of South America and spread across the ocean, releasing significant heat into the atmosphere.
Experts predict that El Niño will likely make 2024 the world's hottest year, potentially pushing global temperatures past the key 1.5°C warming milestone. Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the UK Met Office, said: 'A new record for global temperature next year is definitely plausible.' The current global temperature is about 1.1°C above the 1850-1900 average, and El Niño could add up to 0.2°C.
The event will also impact global weather patterns, bringing drought to Australia, more rain to the southern US, and weakening India's monsoon. El Niño normally strengthens drought conditions in Africa. The strong El Niño in 1997-98 cost over $5 trillion and caused around 23,000 deaths from storms and floods.
The US National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that 'El Niño conditions are present' after ocean temperatures exceeded 0.5°C above normal for a month. The event has an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength by the end of 2023, with a one in four chance of becoming a 'super El Niño' with a peak exceeding 2°C.
The impacts of El Niño will likely lag by a few months but will be felt worldwide. Researchers warn that this event could push 2024 past 2016 as the hottest year on record, providing a glimpse of future climate conditions under continued global warming.
