Global weather forecasters predict the strongest El Niño in a decade will build in late 2026, bringing hotter, drier conditions to much of Asia. El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine to twelve months, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). A clear shift has been observed in the Equatorial Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures rising rapidly, suggesting a high likelihood of El Niño conditions developing between May and July this year, the WMO said.
WMO Confirms High Confidence in El Niño Onset
The World Meteorological Organization has predicted the return of El Niño weather from as early as May, with the potential to affect global temperatures and rainfall patterns. "After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the WMO, in a statement. "We are already seeing heat and dryness in parts of Australia and India," said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at weather intelligence firm Meteomatics based in Switzerland. "The last time we saw similar signals was during the severe 2015 to 2016 El Niño," he added. Conversely, it is expected to boost rains across parts of North and South America.
Forecasters' Predictions by Region
Japan's weather bureau says there is a 70% chance for an El Niño to emerge during the northern hemisphere summer, while Indian weather authorities warn the South Asian nation's monsoon season could be below average for the first time in three years. Weather officials in China expect El Niño conditions to run through the end of the year after emerging in May. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center sees a 61% chance of an El Niño during the period from May to July.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology is predicting below long-term median rains in eastern cropping regions between May and August, the first half of the country's growing season. Weather models indicate rains below, and temperatures above, normal across Australia, Southeast Asia and India, said Chris Hyde. "Overall, I think it's going to be ideal growing conditions across the U.S. Midwest this year," he added. "We will have to watch the timing of El Niño, there could be some impacts to excessive moisture towards harvest."
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the same climate system in the tropical Pacific. El Niño is a natural pattern of unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It builds when shifts in atmospheric pressure weaken, or even reverse, normally steady easterly trade winds, allowing eastward movement of warm waters piled up in the western Pacific, for a redistribution of heat, altering global weather patterns.
A La Niña forms when trade winds strengthen, pushing more warm water toward the western Pacific and allowing colder water to upwell in the east, driving sea surface temperatures below normal. La Niña often brings above-average rainfall to Australia and parts of Southeast Asia, but its impact on the Indian monsoon is variable, rather than uniformly strengthening. In the Americas, La Niña tends to lead to wetter conditions in parts of northern South America and drier conditions in the southern United States. Overall, the Americas broadly turn drier. An El Niño occurs every three to five years on average and a La Niña once every three to seven years, says Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.
Impact of Previous El Niño Events
El Niño events vary in severity and impact. A strong one in 2015 and 2016 caused severe drought across Australia and Southeast Asia, while weakening the Indian monsoon. It reduced output of grain, palm oil and sugar. At the same time, excessive rain in parts of South America disrupted soybean and corn harvests. A moderate El Niño in 2009 and 2010 brought dry weather that reduced yields of staples rice and wheat in India and Southeast Asia. The strongest El Niño on record was in 1997–1998. It caused drought in some parts of Asia slashed rice production, although India received average rainfall. Flooding in the Americas damaged crops. The most recent instance of a strong La Niña was from 2020 to 2023.
Risks of Disruption in Europe and the United States
An El Niño could also dump more rain on Europe and the United States, especially during the U.S. corn and soybean harvest. While heavier rains in the Americas can offset some of the agricultural losses in Asia, excessive rainfall and floods can disrupt harvests and degrade the quality of grains and oilseeds. "In Europe, if we have a lot of rain this summer, it could be favourable for corn, and vice versa," said Benoit Fayaud, a senior grain analyst with commodity data group Expana. "Then, for European wheat, when El Niño is expected to arrive, harvests should have already begun in Europe," added Fayaud, who is based in France. Also worrying farmers is the spectre of fertiliser made scarce as output and supplies of petrochemicals take a knock from the Middle East conflict. "If fertiliser costs remain high, low rainfall will encourage farmers not to use it," said Vitor Pistoia at Rabobank in Australia. "Why spread expensive fertiliser on a crop that is going to be poor anyway? That could be a vicious cycle that compounds yield loss."
