California's jet fuel supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, as ongoing instability in the Middle East continues to strain the global oil market. According to the California Energy Commission (CEC), which maintains a refinery stocks data dashboard, the state's jet fuel stock stood at just over 2.6 million barrels as of 17 April, down from 3.2 million barrels two years earlier.
Foreign Dependence and Supply Disruption
In 2025, California sourced 61.1% of its oil from foreign suppliers, predominantly Asian refiners, according to the CEC. This marks a significant shift from the early 1990s, when nearly half of the state's oil came from domestic refineries. Energy researchers attribute this change to stricter air quality regulations. However, this reliance on foreign oil has been disrupted by the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. Asia imported over 14 million barrels per day of crude Middle Eastern oil in 2025, and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil shipments, has declined sharply.
Rising Jet Fuel Prices
Since the outbreak of the war, jet fuel prices have surged. In the first two months of 2026, prices in Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, and New York averaged around $2.30 per gallon, according to Argus Media, a commodity price tracker. By 24 April, the average price had climbed to $4.19 per gallon. At Los Angeles International Airport, jet fuel costs recently approached $15 per gallon, as reported by the Los Angeles Times.
Sandy Louey, a CEC spokesperson, stated: "Jet fuel supply is tight globally. California prices reflect that pressure, though the US is better positioned due to domestic refining infrastructure and crude supply that Europe lacks." She added that the CEC is closely monitoring fuel supply and price conditions resulting from the Middle East conflict and is coordinating with industry, state agencies, and stakeholders to assess near-term risks and options.
Impact on Consumers and Airlines
Consumers across the US are beginning to feel the financial impact of the jet fuel supply crunch. Several airlines, including Delta, Southwest, and JetBlue, have introduced higher baggage fees, while others have imposed fuel surcharges.
Clint Henderson, a travel expert with the Points Guy, does not foresee a scenario where planes cannot be refueled. However, he warns that without geopolitical changes, there will likely be an increase in cancelled flight routes, potentially disrupting upcoming travel plans. "Some of the shorter-haul flights that are not super profitable will likely be cut first," he said. "We haven't seen any letup in demand from passengers. So you've got the same amount of people wanting to travel, but you've got fewer seats available." He added, "That's driving prices higher and prices are already higher."
