Alan Kohler, a veteran ABC economic analyst, has attributed Australia's declining birth rate to the pervasive use of smartphones, warning of significant economic repercussions. The fertility rate has fallen to 1.5 births per woman in Australia, the US, and the UK, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Kohler cautioned that this trend could disrupt the balance between workers and retirees, leading to labor shortages, reduced tax revenue, lower growth, and diminished productivity. He also noted potential benefits, such as easing pressure on housing affordability and global warming.
Kohler argued that smartphones are reducing face-to-face interactions among young people, leading to fewer relationships and subsequently fewer children. He also highlighted unaffordable housing as a major contributing factor, with median dwelling prices soaring to $941,864 nationally. Prices vary significantly across cities: Sydney at $1.28 million, Melbourne at $812,621, Brisbane at $1.12 million, Adelaide at $950,703, Perth at $1.05 million, and Hobart at $752,398. The strongest monthly gains were in Perth and Darwin (1.5%), while Sydney and Melbourne saw declines of 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively.
Kohler described the two main solutions to falling fertility rates as contradictory: more migration and lower house prices. The Albanese government expects net overseas migration to be just under one million over four years, with 295,000 arrivals this financial year and 245,000 next year. House prices are predicted to fall by up to 10% in 2026, influenced by interest rates, declining household confidence, and tax reforms. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised the cash rate to 4.35%, the highest since 2024, while Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced changes to Capital Gains Tax in the May 12 budget. Kohler remained skeptical about a recovery, warning that continued low migration, unaffordable housing, and artificial intelligence could further reduce birth rates.
