Wales could secure around £3.5bn over the next four years by gaining a fair share of funding from three key UK institutions, according to a new analysis.
The figure is based on Wales's share of the UK population and combines research investment from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), commercially repayable finance from the British Business Bank, and loans, guarantees and insurance from UK Export Finance (UKEF). It is not guaranteed, but highlights the scale of opportunity if Wales develops a coherent strategy for working with all three.
Underfunding in research
UKRI will control £39bn between 2026-27 and 2029-30, with a new strategy linking scientific discovery with commercialisation. Wales currently receives only around 3 per cent of UKRI expenditure, which in 2023-24 was £168m, equivalent to £53 per person, compared with £134 per person across the UK.
If Wales increased its share to match its population share, it could generate £500m to £600m in additional investment over four years. This would strengthen universities, attract researchers, and help create companies in sectors like compound semiconductors, advanced materials, clean energy and creative technologies.
British Business Bank and UKEF
The British Business Bank has increased its permanent financial capacity to £25.6bn. Between 2026-30, it expects to make £10.2bn of funded commitments and issue £8.4bn of guarantees, totalling £18.6bn. A population share for Wales would be worth approximately £860m, about two and a half times the non-property business finance provided by the Development Bank of Wales over the last four years.
UKEF provided £11.2bn in loans, guarantees and insurance in 2025-26, supporting 937 businesses and an estimated 85,000 jobs. Its statutory capacity has doubled from £80bn to £160bn. A 4.6 per cent share of Welsh population in its current annual activity would be approximately £515m, or just over £2bn across four years. However, this figure is uncertain, as a single major defence, aerospace, or infrastructure contract could transform any spend.
Comparing to Welsh budgets
Some activity already takes place in Wales, so the £3.5bn is a benchmark, not an entitlement. For context, the Welsh Government's entire Economy, Energy and Planning budget for 2026-27 is approximately £843m, which would total £3.4bn over four years. The potential £3.5bn from UK institutions is slightly greater than four years of that spending.
The comparison is not exact, as Welsh budgets finance public programmes while much of UK support is repayable lending, guarantees and insurance. But it shows that securing a fair share is not peripheral, and could be as important as almost everything the Welsh Government spends on the economy.
Political context
The opportunity is larger than prominent demands like devolving the Crown Estate, which generated an estimated £210m from Welsh assets in 2025-26. Even if sustained, four years of revenue would be around £840m, less than a quarter of the £3.5bn opportunity.
HS2's latest potential cost is £102.7bn, of which a 4.6 per cent Welsh population share would be about £4.7bn, though over the project's lifetime. Securing a fair share of UKRI, British Business Bank and UKEF activity could be worth considerably more than four years of Crown Estate profits and approach the total value of Wales's disputed HS2 share, yet it has attracted little political attention.
The timing is apt, with a new Prime Minister who has placed fairness between nations and regions at the centre of his economic agenda. That commitment must mean more than moving Whitehall from London to Manchester, and must change how the power of these institutions is distributed. This would ensure research is commercialised, businesses are created and scaled, international orders are won, and well-paid jobs are generated across Wales.
