Holidaymakers flying from the UK this summer have been warned to expect a 'total mess' and 'very expensive tickets' as jet fuel shortages threaten to disrupt travel plans. Experts caution that volatile fuel prices are creating challenging conditions for airlines worldwide, with tens of thousands of flights cancelled in the past week alone and many more expected to follow.
European Market Especially Vulnerable
Claims suggest that the European market, particularly the UK, is more exposed to these challenges. Lufthansa, the German airline, announced this week it would scrap 20,000 flights between now and October, and other leading carriers have taken similar measures. The conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are driving dramatic rises in fuel costs.
Rob Britton, a professor of crisis management at Georgetown University and a retired American Airlines executive, told the New York Times that even after the war ends, it will take months for fuel prices and airfares to stabilise. 'It won’t happen overnight,' Dr. Britton said. 'It’s a total, total mess.'
Impact on Holidaymakers
EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen told Sky News that many people would be affected by high prices and low availability of aviation fuel. 'Unfortunately, it’s very likely that many people’s holidays will be affected, either because of flight cancellations or very, very expensive tickets,' he said. 'Even if we do everything we can, if the jet fuel is not there, then it’s not there.'
Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going.com, a membership service for finding cheap flights, told the New York Times: 'There is a level of uncertainty here that we have not seen since Covid when it comes to travel. This will be a challenging year for the average traveller hoping to take an affordable summer vacation.'
Citing a JP Morgan report released this week, the New York Times reports that jet fuel supplies in Europe could run low by mid-May. Carriers are increasingly passing costs on to passengers or simply cancelling flights. Global prices of jet fuel have soared by more than 70% since the start of the war, according to the Platts Jet Fuel Price Index, diminishing the prospect of reasonably-priced holidays.
The situation is more acute for European and Asian airlines, which rely heavily on Middle Eastern oil. The JP Morgan report stated that fuel shortages and continued high prices will 'likely lead to summer capacity cuts from June onwards, starting with domestic and marginal routes.' The bank’s analysts flagged Britain as higher risk relative to other European countries due to its reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports.
Airline Responses
British Airways’ parent company IAG said it is 'making some pricing adjustments to reflect higher fuel costs,' though Jet2 has ruled out fuel surcharges. An IAG spokesperson said: 'We are not seeing jet fuel supply interruptions but fuel prices have risen sharply and, despite our hedging strategy which gives some shorter term mitigation, we are not immune to the impact.'
Travel expert Simon Calder noted that 'the situation is considerably less dire and UK airlines are not reporting a shortage of fuel.' He added: 'In some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, flight cuts have been deep and steep surcharges have been added to air fares. So far the impact on British passengers has been limited.'
However, that might change. A Ryanair spokesperson told The Independent: 'We don’t expect any near-term fuel shortages, but the situation is fluid. At present our fuel suppliers can guarantee supply to mid-end May. If the Iran war finishes soon then supply will not be disrupted. If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.'
Airlines UK, representing the main carriers, said: 'Airlines continue to operate normally and are not experiencing issues with jet fuel supply.' A UK government spokesperson added: 'UK airlines are clear that they are not currently seeing a shortage of jet fuel. Aviation fuel is typically bought in advance, and airports and their suppliers keep stocks of bunkered fuel to support their resilience.'
What to Do If Your Flight Is Cancelled
ABTA advises: 'If your flight is cancelled and you’re departing from the UK, your airline must offer you the choice of a replacement flight at the earliest opportunity or a refund. If you choose the replacement flight, most airlines will book you on another of their flights to the same destination. However, if an alternative airline is flying there significantly sooner then you may have the right to be booked on to that flight instead. If you choose a refund, you can get your money back for all parts of the ticket you haven’t used.'
However, compensation may not be available. ABTA states: 'If it wasn’t the airline’s fault, you won’t be entitled to receive any compensation. Cancellations caused by things like extreme weather, airport or air traffic control strikes or other extraordinary circumstances are not eligible for compensation.'
