Almost two years into the second Trump administration, the president's policies have consistently undermined the economic well-being of his core supporters. From housing to energy to healthcare, Trump's initiatives have exacerbated the affordability crisis, hitting his base hardest.
Housing Crisis Worsens Under Trump
The typical home price has risen above five times the annual income of the typical family, and monthly homeownership costs are at record highs. The US faces a housing shortfall of millions of homes. New home supply declined over 14% in May 2025 compared to the previous year. Moody's Analytics expects residential investment to contract annually through 2030.
Congress passed bipartisan legislation to accelerate homebuilding by relaxing environmental reviews and federal regulations—the first such bill in 30 years. However, Trump refused to sign it unless Congress passed a bill restricting mail-in voting and requiring proof of citizenship, calling the housing legislation “of minor importance.”
Energy Costs Surge, Inflation Returns
Trump's war against Iran led to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, causing a surge in gas prices. This dismantled his key campaign promise to slay inflation. Rising inflation has driven real wages down. Moody's Mark Zandi estimates that by June 2025, higher energy costs had erased the tax refund gains from Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025.
Additionally, Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill accelerated cuts to solar power subsidies, and his efforts to stop wind farm investments have driven up renewable energy prices amid soaring demand from AI data centers.
Healthcare Costs Spike for Millions
Enrollment in Affordable Care Act health insurance policies could decline by five to six million due to the abrupt end of government subsidies, leading to a 58% average premium increase. Cuts to food assistance and Medicaid further strain low-income households.
Farmers and Blue-Collar Workers Hit Hard
Farmers, among Trump's most loyal supporters, have suffered from his trade war. Exports to China fell by $17 billion in 2024, and exports to Canada declined by $1 billion. The White House distributed $12 billion in December 2024 to compensate for “unfair market disruptions,” but fertilizer costs have risen due to the Strait of Hormuz closure, and immigration raids have targeted farm labor.
Trump's trade war and immigration crackdown have also hurt blue-collar workers. Manufacturing jobs have declined since he took office, and male employment has fallen by over 1.5 million, while female employment rose by nearly half a million.
Trade Threats Loom
Trump's threat to not renew the trade pact with Mexico and Canada would disproportionately affect his supporters, as nine of the ten states most dependent on exports to those countries voted for him in 2024. Retaliatory tariffs would fall heavily on his base.
Eduardo Porter, a journalist focused on economics and politics, writes the newsletter Being There on Substack.
