New data published this week has confirmed that the State Pension will rise to around £250.70 a week in April 2027, taking the full new State Pension above £13,000 a year for the first time. The increase is based on average earnings growth of 3.9%, which was confirmed by September's inflation figure published on Wednesday.
Experts from Standard Life said the triple-lock mechanism, which uses the highest of inflation, earnings growth, or 2.5%, will lift the full new State Pension from its current £241.30 a week. This means the annual payment will exceed the frozen Personal Allowance, although ministers have said those relying solely on the State Pension will be protected from small tax bills.
Triple Lock Change from 2030
Beyond April 2027, the Government has announced plans to adjust the triple lock from April 2030. Under the new arrangements, the State Pension will still rise by at least inflation or 2.5% each year, while also keeping pace with earnings over time. This change comes alongside the Government's third State Pension age review, which is examining life expectancy, fiscal pressures, and the impact on those who rely most on the State Pension.
The announcement reflects uncertainty already present among the public, according to Standard Life. In a survey conducted shortly before the announcement, just 23% of 18- to 65-year-olds believed the triple lock would still exist by the time they retired, down from 29% in 2025. More than a quarter (26%) thought it wouldn't survive until their retirement, unchanged from last year, with Generation X the most sceptical at 34%.
More Expect to Work Beyond State Pension Age
The Retirement Voice analysis also found that more than half (51%) of people expected to continue working beyond State Pension age, up from 49% in 2025. Millennials are the most likely generation to anticipate working later in life, at 58%. However, working longer will not be equally realistic for everyone, as previous research from the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement found that 36% of those aged 60 to 65 who had not yet retired planned to work longer due to the increase in State Pension age.
Confidence in retirement is under pressure, with more than half (51%) of people worrying their retirement savings and income will not last throughout retirement, up from 47% in 2024. Two in five (42%) expect their standard of living in retirement to be worse than it is today, compared with 38% in 2025. Almost half (45%) of those yet to retire expect their standard of living to be worse than their parents', up from 39% in 2025 and 33% in 2024.
Low-Income Retirees Face Highest Stakes
For people approaching retirement on low incomes, there may be little financial room to save more or practical scope to remain in work longer. Around one in five people aged 60 to 65 (22%) live in poverty, about 1.1 million people. Standard Life also noted that the State Pension accounts for about 71% of income among the lowest-income fifth of non-working households with someone aged 66 to 70.
Catherine Foot, director of the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement, said: "The increase in the value of the State Pension will be welcome news for millions of pensioners, but this year's Retirement Voice findings point to deepening uncertainty among those who aren't yet retired. The triple lock has played an important role in improving pensioner living standards over the past 15 years, yet growing questions about its long-term affordability and fairness between generations have now resulted in a proposed change of direction from 2030. The announced change will reduce public spending, but the Government will need to keep a close eye on pensioner living standards, particularly among those most reliant on the State Pension. Whatever mechanism is used to increase it in future, maintaining confidence in the State Pension as the foundation of most people's retirement income will be essential."
