The UK State Pension is set to increase to approximately £250.70 per week from April 2026, following confirmation that average earnings growth of 3.9% will determine the triple-lock rise. This will take the full new State Pension from £241.30 to just over £13,000 annually for the first time, according to experts from Standard Life.
The September inflation figure, published on Wednesday, confirmed the increase, which was announced as part of the Government's new proposals to adjust the triple lock from April 2030. Under the proposed changes, the State Pension will continue to rise by at least inflation or 2.5% each year, while keeping pace with earnings over time.
Proposed triple lock change echoes existing uncertainty
The plans coincide with the Government's third State Pension age review, which is examining life expectancy, fiscal pressures and the impact of future arrangements on those who depend most heavily on the State Pension. However, the triple lock announcement reflects an uncertainty already apparent amongst the general public, Standard Life said.
When polled shortly before the announcement, just 23% of 18- to 65-year-olds believed the triple lock would still be in place by the time they reached retirement, a notable drop from 29% in 2025. Moreover, more than a quarter (26%) felt it would not survive until their retirement, a figure unchanged from the previous year, with Generation X proving the most sceptical at 34%.
More than half expect to work beyond State Pension age
Against this shifting backdrop, Retirement Voice analysis also found that more than half (51%) of people anticipated continuing to work beyond State Pension age, rising from 49% in 2025. Millennials are the generation most likely to expect to work later in life, at 58%.
However, working for longer will not be a realistic option for everybody. Earlier research from the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement revealed that 36% of those aged 60 to 65 who had not yet retired intended to work for longer as a result of the increase in State Pension age, while women in this age group were twice as likely as men to say the rise would have a major impact on their health.
Almost half of future retirees expect standards of living to be worse than their parents
Confidence in retirement planning is also facing mounting pressure, as uncertainty surrounding the State Pension compounds wider concerns about financial security in later life, Standard Life has warned. More than half (51%) of people worry their retirement savings and income will not last throughout retirement, up from 47% in 2024, while two in five (42%) expect their standard of living in retirement to be worse than it is today, compared with 38% in 2025.
Almost half (45%) of those yet to retire also anticipate their standard of living will be worse than that of their parents', up from 39% in 2025 and 33% in 2024. Meanwhile, almost half (48%) of those yet to retire feel their retirement finances are largely dictated by factors beyond their control, highlighting how economic uncertainty and unresolved policy questions can erode confidence when planning for later life.
The projected increase will also push the full new State Pension just above the frozen Personal Allowance. While ministers have indicated that those relying solely on the State Pension will be shielded from modest tax bills, individuals with small amounts of additional taxable income could still find themselves affected, Standard Life cautioned.
Those approaching retirement on low incomes face the highest stakes
For those nearing retirement on low incomes, there may be little financial flexibility to set aside additional savings or any realistic prospect of remaining in employment for longer. At present, approximately one in five people aged between 60 and 65 (22%) are living in poverty — equating to roughly 1.1 million individuals.
Previous research by the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement has drawn attention to the rise in 'pre-retirement poverty', partly attributed to the increase in the State Pension age since 2010. Standard Life also noted that separate analysis revealed the State Pension accounts for approximately 71% of income amongst the lowest-income fifth of non-working households containing someone aged between 66 and 70, highlighting just how vital it is to those with the fewest alternative resources.
Catherine Foot, director of the Standard Life Centre for the Future of Retirement, said: "The increase in the value of the State Pension will be welcome news for millions of pensioners, but this year's Retirement Voice findings point to deepening uncertainty among those who aren't yet retired. The triple lock has played an important role in improving pensioner living standards over the past 15 years, yet growing questions about its long-term affordability and fairness between generations have now resulted in a proposed change of direction from 2030."
"The announced change will reduce public spending, but the Government will need to keep a close eye on pensioner living standards, particularly among those most reliant on the State Pension. Whatever mechanism is used to increase it in future, maintaining confidence in the State Pension as the foundation of most people's retirement income will be essential."
"This is a particularly important moment for Generation X. Many are approaching retirement with undersaving challenges and less access to defined benefit pensions than earlier generations. Working longer can improve retirement outcomes and will be part of the answer, but it may not be realistic for everyone, particularly those affected by ill health, caring responsibilities or limited opportunities in the labour market."
"The change to the triple lock, therefore, needs to be considered alongside broader decisions on the future State Pension age and the Pensions Commission's work on retirement adequacy, including wider action to increase automatic enrolment contributions. The goal must be a system that remains sustainable and affordable while giving people clarity and a firm foundation on which to plan."
