Rocketing oil prices on the back of the Iran war are set to boost BP's first quarter figures after crude surged past $100 a barrel since the conflict began. The FTSE 100 oil giant reports quarterly results on Tuesday, having earlier flagged an 'exceptional' oil trading result for the first three months of the year.
The firm upgraded its oil trading guidance for the first quarter after a 'weak' outcome in the final quarter of 2025. Brent crude reached close to $120 a barrel and remains above $100 as peace talks falter amid fears of a global energy supply crisis.
BP revealed that each $1 movement per barrel in oil prices impacts pre-tax operating profits by $340 million (£252 million). Its share price has leapt nearly a third higher in the past six months as the crude rally boosted the stock. However, upstream production is expected to be broadly flat quarter on quarter, with oil production slightly lower, and net debt is set to rise to between $25 billion and $27 billion (£18.5 billion to £20 billion), up from $22.2 billion in the fourth quarter.
The results will be the first since Meg O'Neill took over as chief executive on April 1, replacing Murray Auchincloss, who was ousted as part of a leadership overhaul by new chairman Albert Manifold. BP's annual general meeting on Thursday saw a shareholder revolt, with an 18.2% vote against Mr Manifold's election amid concerns over climate transparency and governance. The meeting came after BP shifted away from renewables back to its core oil and gas business.
Michael Hewson at MCH Market Insights said: 'It's important not to have too high an expectation in what will be Meg O'Neill's first earnings announcement as chief executive, but it should set the tone. Given the weak fourth quarter, when BP posted a $3.4 billion loss, I would suspect the bar is quite low.'
