A Gallup poll published on Tuesday reveals that a record-high 60% of Russians believe their local economic conditions are deteriorating, the first time a majority has held this view since 2006. This represents a significant blow to President Vladimir Putin, as the ongoing war in Ukraine continues to strain Russia's economy.
Between March and May 2026, Gallup interviewed Russian adults, finding that only 27% said things were improving. The previous high was 50% in 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, and 45% in 2020. The survey also found that 56% of Russians believe their living standards are worsening, the highest level of pessimism in two decades.
Labour Market and Economic Forecasts
The poll indicates that 58% of respondents think it is a bad time to find a job in their area, highlighting worsening labour shortages. Despite earlier growth driven by defence spending, Russia's growth forecast for 2026 has been slashed from 1.3% to 0.4%, even amid rising oil prices following the Iran war.
Official figures show the deficit for the first four months of 2026 reached 5.9 trillion rubles, or about 2.5% of GDP. According to the Economic Development Ministry, GDP in January and February was 1.8% lower than the same period in 2025. The Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting estimates a 1.5% contraction in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year, while the Central Bank had originally forecast 1.6% growth.
Putin's Response
Putin downplayed the figures, stating: "These are objective circumstances, of course, but it is clear they are far from the only factors determining business and investment activity in the country." However, the poll results underscore growing public discontent as the war diverts resources from civilian needs.
