Inflation fell sharply to 2.8% in the year to April 2026, down from 3.3% in March, driven by lower energy costs. However, mortgage brokers have warned borrowers not to expect further rate cuts, describing the drop as a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' and a 'mirage'.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% in April 2026, compared with 1.2% a year earlier. Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the Office for National Statistics, attributed the decline to the Government's energy bill support package and lower global wholesale prices, but noted that rising crude oil and petrol costs are pushing up raw materials and factory goods.
Shaun Sturgess, director at Sturgess Mortgage Solutions, said: 'This data could be a wolf in sheep's clothing for borrowers. The reality is that this data is masking the full impact of the fuel crisis caused by events in the Middle East and that inflation could rise sharply over the summer.'
Philly Ponniah, chartered wealth manager at Philly Financial, added: 'Some people may delay fixing their mortgage or refinancing because they expect cheaper deals ahead, only to find rates move higher again if inflation stays stubborn. Waiting for the 'perfect' rate can sometimes cost more than securing certainty.'
Hannah Vandervennin, director of The Mortgage Consultancy, said: 'The cost of borrowers waiting for the perfect moment isn't a slightly worse deal. It's the deal you didn't do, the property you didn't buy and the remortgage you kept putting off.'
Rob Mansfield, independent financial advisor at Rootes Wealth Management, warned: 'With the sustained conflict in the Middle East, prices are more likely to rise in the months ahead, so this could be a mirage in the desert on a bumpy road that is inflation.'
