The latest inflation figures have sparked a warning from mortgage experts that borrowers should not expect interest rates to fall further in the near future. Inflation dropped to 2.8% in the year to April 2026, down from 3.3% in March, driven largely by the government's energy price cap. However, experts caution that this decline may be temporary and could reverse as the impact of rising oil prices and Middle Eastern tensions feeds through.
Inflation Drop: A Wolf in Sheep's Clothing?
Shaun Sturgess, director of Sturgess Mortgage Solutions, described the data as "a wolf in sheep's clothing." He warned that borrowers might be misled into thinking rate cuts are imminent, but the reality is that inflation could rise sharply over the summer if the conflict intensifies. "That could send rates higher rather than lower," he said.
Philly Ponniah, chartered wealth manager at Philly Financial, echoed these concerns: "Much of the fall came from temporary energy effects. If inflation starts climbing again, expectations around future rate cuts could change quickly. Waiting for the 'perfect' rate can sometimes cost more than securing certainty."
Energy Support Package and Base Effects
Hannah Vandervennin, director of The Mortgage Consultancy, noted that the fall was partly due to the energy support package and base effects, both temporary. "Oil is going the wrong way," she said, adding that the cost of waiting for the perfect moment is not just a slightly worse deal but potentially missing out on buying a property or remortgaging in time.
Rob Mansfield, independent financial adviser at Rootes Wealth Management, called the drop "a mirage in the desert." He pointed out that prices often lag world events, and with sustained conflict in the Middle East, prices are more likely to rise in the months ahead.
Market Expectations and Rate Cuts
Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, emphasised that lenders and markets are already braced for the coming months. "As mortgage rates are priced on future costs, significant rate cuts are definitely not on the horizon," he said.
Eamonn Prendergast, chartered financial adviser at Palantir Financial Planning, warned savers against complacency. "Inflation continues to reduce purchasing power over time. Even at 2.8%, the real return after inflation is minimal. The key is not reacting to one month's figure but ensuring your strategy protects and grows wealth in real terms."
