In a significant revelation that's set to shape the economic debate this autumn, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has confirmed that her first major budget will not contain a formal assessment of Brexit's economic impact.
The Labour Chancellor disclosed that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) faces significant limitations in its ability to model the precise effects of Britain's departure from the European Union. This admission comes as the government prepares its crucial Autumn Statement amid ongoing economic uncertainty.
Forecasting Constraints Take Centre Stage
During tense parliamentary exchanges, Reeves emphasised that while the OBR considers the "broad macroeconomic context" of Brexit in its forecasts, it cannot isolate specific impacts with the precision some MPs are demanding. The independent fiscal watchdog's modelling constraints mean comprehensive Brexit analysis remains elusive.
Conservative critics have seized on this development, with former minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg accusing the government of avoiding proper scrutiny of Brexit's consequences. However, Treasury officials maintain that the OBR's existing approach adequately incorporates Brexit considerations within its broader economic assessment framework.
Political Battle Lines Drawn
The controversy highlights the ongoing political sensitivity surrounding Brexit evaluation nearly a decade after the referendum. Reeves finds herself navigating between economic transparency and political pragmatism, with the government keen to focus attention on its growth strategy rather than re-litigating past decisions.
Shadow Treasury ministers have questioned whether this stance represents a "deliberate avoidance" of Brexit's economic reality, while government allies argue it reflects the practical limitations of economic forecasting in a complex post-Brexit landscape.
What This Means for the Autumn Budget
As the new Chancellor prepares her fiscal statement, this decision signals several key priorities:
- Focus on immediate economic challenges rather than historical analysis
- Reliance on the OBR's existing methodological framework
- A pragmatic approach to Brexit's economic legacy
- Potential for continued political controversy over economic transparency
The Autumn Budget, expected to outline the government's economic strategy for the coming parliamentary session, will now proceed without the comprehensive Brexit impact assessment that some parliamentarians had been demanding.
