Argentina heads to the polls on Sunday in a midterm election that will deliver a verdict on Javier Milei's radical libertarian administration, amid an economic crisis and accusations that Donald Trump is seeking to influence the outcome. A poor result would be a hammer blow to the president, who took office in December 2023 vowing to usher in a new era of peace and prosperity through deep spending cuts and reduced inflation.
While Milei has made progress in curbing triple-digit inflation, his government has been buffeted by a series of recent crises. These include corruption scandals involving his sister and chief of staff, Karina Milei, and a close ally linked to an alleged drug trafficker, as well as a sell-off of the peso. In August, Milei was pelted with stones by angry voters, and the following month his party, La Libertad Avanza, lost a provincial election in Buenos Aires, home to 40% of Argentina's 45 million people.
The US president, Milei's most powerful foreign ally, has offered a bailout that could reach US$40bn (£30bn). But Trump has also painted a grim picture of Argentina's economy, saying last week: “Argentina is fighting for its life … They are dying.” He warned that the aid package could be withdrawn if Milei fares poorly on Sunday, when voters will elect half of the 257-seat lower house and 24 of the 72-member senate. “If he doesn't win, we're gone,” Trump said while hosting Milei at the White House.
The apparent intervention has angered Milei's opponents. Itai Hagman, a Peronist economist seeking re-election in Buenos Aires, accused Trump of trying to “extort” Argentine voters and said it was “clear interference in the internal affairs of another country”. He described Sunday's vote as a referendum on “a libertarian anarcho-capitalist experiment” inflicting “brutal economic and social suffering” through severe austerity. Milei allies, however, urged patience. “We cannot solve all the problems that the country has had for 100 years in two years,” said Gonzalo Roca, a congressional candidate in Córdoba, insisting the country was “on the right path” but that the blueprint required “effort and sacrifice”.
Analysts predict voters will punish Milei for their economic hardship. Gustavo Córdoba, a political consultant, noted polling showing 60% of Argentinians cannot make ends meet. Benjamin Gedan of the Stimson Centre in Washington said public dissatisfaction had grown as promised shared prosperity failed to materialise. “If he does very badly you could have a real economic and financial crisis and another run on the peso,” Gedan said, though he believed a “muddled” result was more likely.
