Maine's logging and fishing industries are feeling the strain of President Trump's trade war with Canada, with rising costs forcing some businesses to shut down and voters expressing frustration ahead of the midterm elections.
Molly London and her husband Alex, who ran WW London Woodlot Management Company in Penobscot county, decided to close their logging business in August after waiting weeks for replacement machine parts that were no longer stocked locally because tariffs had made them too expensive. The warm, dry summer had been ideal for cutting trees, but the couple, who started the business nearly 10 years ago, were exhausted after years of fighting ever-climbing costs.
"It just didn't feel right any more," London said. "We've been losing for a long time, and this is just getting worse."
Logging industry under pressure
For centuries, Maine's economy has been tied to logging. Penobscot styled itself the "lumber capital of the world" in the 19th century, and today timber lorries still dominate Maine's rural interstates. The aroma from spruce and fir trees can be smelled through a closed car window. Logging's health is a crucial bellwether for the state's economy, and things are looking bleak amid the trade war with Canada and record-high diesel prices.
Democrats are hoping the frustration will unseat Republican Susan Collins, whose loss would help the party win a majority in the US Senate. After the fallout of Graham Platner, who dropped out of the race in July amid sexual assault allegations, the party has been scrambling to make up for lost time. In his first campaign ad, Troy Jackson, formerly the state's senate president who lost a bid to be governor earlier this year, labeled himself a "fifth-generation logger".
"Susan Collins is just a rubber-stamp for the wealthy elite in this country," Jackson said in another campaign ad. Sara Gideon, a former state representative, ran similar attack ads in 2020, telling voters that Collins is "Not For You Anymore". It didn't work. Though the state voted for Joe Biden, it re-elected Collins, despite no public polls showing her with a lead.
Generational bonds with Canada
This election, Collins continues to highlight that she is a girl from Caribou who hails from a lumber family. Her seniority in the Senate has given her power: Collins has been a senator for 29 years, making her the fifth longest-serving senator, and chairs the Senate's powerful appropriations committee. "I am a county girl," Collins said, while sitting on a pile of potatoes for a recent campaign ad featuring Mainers saying the senator is "just like us".
The state, with a population of 1.4 million people, leans Democrat, driven by strong liberal support along its coast, and has not voted for a Republican president since George HW Bush in 1988. While it's still unclear how voters will turn out in the midterms – Collins and Jackson are currently neck-and-neck in the polls – some voters have been feeling left behind. "It feels like the things that were promised to get into office now don't come through," London said. "I think this area is definitely feeling the impact of that."
Maine's economy is deeply intertwined with Canada, sending roughly 40% of its exports to its northern neighbor, according to the Maine International Trade Center. "There are generational bonds. We share our largest border with Canada. A lot of Mainers can trace their history through Canada," said Patrick Woodcock, the president of the Maine State Chamber of Commerce. "There's a business relationship as well, but also familial. … We have a little bit of a shared destiny together."
That relationship has been sorely tested by the breakdown in relations from Trump's trade war. After negotiations between the two countries broke down, Trump announced a 50% tariff on select Canadian goods that began 22 August. In response, Canada introduced its own retaliatory tariffs, ranging from 15% to 50%, targeting $20bn worth of American imports with levies that took effect earlier this month.
For Maine loggers, many of the parts and equipment they usually buy from Canada and other countries have been hit by tariffs, said Dana Doran, the executive director of the Professional Logging Contractors of the Northeast. Loggers report seeing prices for equipment, parts and trucks go up between 30% and 50% since Trump's tariffs were first announced. "Those prices have not come down. That for them is more directly impacting them day to day, and their cost of doing business," Doran said.
The US is also "exceptionally reliant" on Canadian lumber mills to process wood used for housing, Doran said, but increasing duties imposed by the US court of international trade – not Trump – have led to a dramatic decline in Canadian-manufactured wood coming back into the US. Demand for wood has declined as homebuilding has slowed considerably over the last few years, he added. "When interest rates drop and the economy changes, and building construction comes back, will we have enough manufacturing? I would say we don't," Doran said.
Challenging headwinds
Even without the recent trade war, Maine's logging industry has been buckling for years. Loggers face increased costs across the board and a shrinking workforce. The industry is mostly made up of small, family-run businesses passed down from generations, Doran said, but many longtime owners are now urging their kids not to go into the family business. Even when London and her husband started their business in 2017, they were warned they were embarking on an uphill battle. "We knew a lot of the guys that had been doing it for generations," she said. "And they all told us we were crazy."
Still, they were excited about combining their skills – Molly London earned a master's in forestry while her husband had experience hauling and trucking – to create a family business that would leave a legacy and give them a chance to work outdoors. "We just liked the idea of going to work in the woods. We thought it would be really fun and exciting," she said. "And it was. That was part of why we stuck it out so long, because we really enjoyed what we did." But after Covid, costs kept rising. Everything from tires, fuel and payroll for their employees started to squeeze the company. "It just was getting harder and harder for us to make it work every week," she said. "This year in particular, the tariffs made it just – it was impossible."
At the same time, costs at home were increasing. The Londons could no longer afford their family's health insurance and dropped their coverage in 2025 so they could continue offering it to their crew members. It's been years since the family indulged in what was once a Friday night ritual, dinner at a local pizza shop; instead, they eat at home. And for the first time, their kids participated in the free food programs at their schools this summer because groceries have gotten so expensive.
Many loggers turned out for Trump in the last election. London credits this to Trump presenting himself as someone looking to "fight against the man", someone who would lower grocery and gas costs and rid Washington of corruption. But that feeling is gone, she said. "If you read the news," London said, "it doesn't seem like the Trump administration cares. It doesn't seem like anything's going to change any time soon. And it's at some point, we have to just see this for what it is."
As the logging industry has declined, other treasured industries have also been struggling because of recent price increases. Justin Allen Liddy, from Fort Clyde, Maine, has been catching and selling fish for 29 years. With fuel prices reaching over $5 in some parts of the state, he now only fills up his vessel, the Captain Lee, halfway with gas before going out to catch fish, to keep expenses down. Even then, his gas bill reaches up to $2,500 for each trip. David Turin, a longtime Portland chef and restaurateur, also cited price increases across the board at his restaurants at the same time Americans are drinking less and eating out less frequently. "I have never experienced a time with more challenging headwinds than right now," he said. "The whole financial dynamic that has worked for generations in our industry just is broken down, and so everybody's trying to figure it out."
Maine's population is also the oldest in the country, and as an increasing share of the workforce hits retirement age, the state needs to recruit more young workers to keep its economy growing, said Quincy Hentzel, the CEO of the Portland regional chamber of commerce. But many young people are struggling with the high cost of living in Portland. "Our biggest challenge to getting the workers here is the cost of housing," she said. "You can be an employee of any level – you could be an SVP who's trying to get recruited here by one of our larger global companies, or you could be a sous chef at a restaurant. Everyone is having significant challenges finding affordable housing."
By some estimates, the country needs upwards of 4m new homes to help make housing more affordable, according to data from Redfin. Maine needs at least 80,000 more housing units. But housing construction has remained sluggish in recent years, in part because construction costs have gone up significantly across the country. "Commercial construction costs in Maine have more than doubled in the last decade, greatly exceeding nearly all other inflation metrics," said Jonathan Culley, a managing partner at Redfern Properties in Portland.
Interest rates are also high – the US Federal Reserve raised rates last week amid stubbornly high inflation that remains above their 2% target. Even if rates eventually drop and housing construction picks up again, the US is not equipped to handle the manufacturing needed to build more housing, Culley said. "We don't have the manufacturing capacity in the United States to keep up with housing demand, if interest rates drop," he added. "We absolutely do not."
Doran, of Maine's logging trade association, said the Trump administration doesn't seem to be asking the right questions – about American manufacturing, but also the affordability crisis at large. "The Trump administration is not talking about, what package of incentives do we need to incentivize American manufacturing?" Doran said. "What are we doing about electricity costs? What are we doing about healthcare? Will we have enough people to go to work at these facilities? Can we ramp up fast enough? To me, that is an entire conversation that is not happening."
