Andy Burnham must outline plans to tackle Britain's spiralling welfare bill, with the cost of Personal Independence Payments (PIP) forecast to nearly double by 2030, or face accusations of political cowardice.
The amount of cash spent on PIP as part of welfare is already eye-watering, but the numbers are set to get much bigger. Without proper intervention, they risk becoming unsustainable – the Prime Minister should be panicking.
Despite this, it is doubtful Burnham will mention Britain's ballooning welfare bill at his big party conference speech on Tuesday – after all, he will not want to upset his fragile backbench MPs. Anyhow, we already know what the PM's priorities are from the answer he gave to Tory leader Kemi Badenoch in one of his first Prime Minister's Questions, when he said national security (defence spending) "can't come at the expense of social security".
PIP costs set to nearly double by 2030
Labour is the party of welfare and always will be – it's in their DNA, but official figures predict that the PIP benefits bill is set to double by 2030 and we simply cannot afford this.
Britain is skint with economic growth predictions for next year in the doldrums, plus we keep borrowing money that is more expensive to pay back, so we must curb our public spending before it contributes to the bankruptcy of the nation.
I am proud of the fact that we live in a country with a welfare state that was originally set up to support those who fell on hard times and would support them in their hour of need, but over the last decade we seem to have moved on from a mindset of "what do I need" to "what can I get".
OBR forecast and rising claimant numbers
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – the government's official economic forecaster – estimates the cost of PIP will nearly double from £26billion in 2024 to £45billion in 2030, by which time it will exceed the entire budget of the Department for Transport.
PIP was introduced in 2013 to replace Disability Living Allowance and is designed to help with extra costs if you have a long-term physical or mental health condition or disability, and if you have difficulty doing certain daily tasks or getting around because of your condition.
The daily living part of PIP is received if you need assistance with preparing food, eating and drinking, washing and bathing, using the loo, getting dressed and undressed, reading, managing your finances, listening and understanding, and socialising around other people.
Access to the mobility part of PIP is based on if you need help with working out a route and following it, leaving your home or physically moving around. Claimants are eligible even if they work, have savings or are getting most other benefits, and can receive top rates of £428 a month based on the standard PIP rate or £778.40 if they qualify for the enhanced level of support.
Young claimants and the Timms Review
Current figures reveal that 4.1 million people are claiming PIP – this is predicted to rise to five million people by 2031. Nobody would begrudge these payments to anyone who genuinely needs them, but questions must be asked as to why official predictions show the numbers of claimants will rise significantly and consequently cost taxpayers more.
As the debate continues about whether the increase in ADHD and autism diagnoses is either down to greater awareness of the symptoms of the condition or excessive misdiagnosis, we are seeing a growing number of young people recorded as having ADHD and autism claim PIP. A report by the Nuffield Trust shows that by April of this year, just over 205,400 people aged 16-24 were receiving the benefit, which is more than three times the 2019 figures, at an estimated cost of nearly £1.4billion in 2025/26.
Some readers will rightly question if those with ADHD are truly in need of PIP. Elsewhere, analysis by the TaxPayers' Alliance campaign group shows that working age PIP claims rose by 467,091 between April 2024 and April 2026, including 37,957 aged between 16 and 19 years old and 87,919 additional claims from people in their 20s.
The government has commissioned The Timms Review of Personal Independence Payment, having acknowledged that it is no longer fit for purpose, yet its interim report released in July reveals little about any rigorous steps that could be considered to reduce spiralling claiming numbers and the growing cost – especially among younger people.
It is abundantly clear that PIP needs to become a means-tested benefit, as Britain can no longer afford for it to be otherwise. The Prime Minister must outline how he plans to address our spiralling welfare bill and the growing cost of PIP – anything else is just political cowardice.
