An AI safety and cybersecurity expert has issued a stark warning that artificial intelligence poses an existential risk, predicting that robots will soon overtake humans in a world-changing event. Roman Yampolskiy, a computer scientist at the University of Louisville, forecast a 99.9% probability that AI will eliminate mankind within the coming century, according to his 2024 appearance on Lex Friedman's podcast.
Unpredictable AI Systems
Yampolskiy argued that no AI system deployed to date has been perfect and said future versions of AI could trigger catastrophic disasters on our planet. He belongs to a small yet outspoken circle of pioneering AI researchers voicing such alarm during President Donald Trump's AI race.
In 2023, Yampolskiy published a book titled "AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable," described as providing "a broad introduction to the core problems, such as the unpredictability of AI outcomes or the difficulty in explaining AI decisions." He said: "This book arrives at more complex issues of ownership and control, conducting an in-depth analysis of potential hazards and unintentional consequences."
"The book then wraps up with philosophical and existential musings, delving into questions of AI personhood, consciousness, and the distinction between human intelligence and artificial general intelligence (AGI)," he added.
Contrasting Academic Views
Tech experts said the original pioneers of AI, including Yampolskiy, are among those raising the most urgent warnings about the potential catastrophic consequences this technological breakthrough could trigger. Nevertheless, some researchers find fault with Yampolskiy's apocalyptic forecast, saying the real threat is insignificant compared to his fear-mongering.
Research carried out by the University of Oxford in England and the University of Bonn in Germany discovered only a 5% probability that AI will eliminate humanity, based on evaluations from over 2,700 AI academics. "People try to talk as if expecting extinction risk is a minority view, but among AI experts it is mainstream," said Katja Grace, one of the paper's authors. "The disagreement seems to be whether the risk is 1% or 20%."
Dismissals and Economic Concerns
Several leading AI authorities have completely dismissed the possibility of AI sparking an apocalypse, including Google Brain co-founder Andrew Ng and AI pioneer Yann Lecun, with the latter alleging tech giants like OpenAI's Sam Altman have hidden agendas behind their fear-mongering about catastrophic AI consequences.
Altman has delivered several disturbing statements about his field, cautioning that AI will probably destroy countless jobs, which he brushed off as not "real work," remarks that sparked a furious wave of criticism. Various AI sceptics have also raised concerns, proposing the technology could trigger an economic collapse by replacing workers across all sectors without exception.
More than a decade ago, in 2015, Altman issued a grim forecast, saying: "AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime, there'll be great companies." He also came under heavy fire earlier this year for suggesting that widespread implementation of AI would necessitate "changes to the social contract."
