Shoppers have been warned that food price rises could still head higher in the coming months despite inflation falling. Food inflation fell to 2.2% in May, the lowest since December 2024, down from 3% in April. However, Karen Betts, chief executive of the Food and Drink Federation, cautioned that the effects of the Middle East war are still filtering through.
Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased energy and fertiliser costs, making production and distribution more expensive. Betts stated: “It’s good to see an easing of food inflation in May, but consumer prices still don’t reflect the inflation caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It generally takes several months for the increased costs paid by farmers, processors and manufacturers to filter into raised prices at the tills, not least because of the widespread use of long-term contracts for energy and ingredients. But manufacturer input costs are rising, including for transport, packaging and energy, and we expect food inflation to pick up this year and into next.”
Price Changes by Category
ONS data shows prices rose fastest for beef and veal (9.4%), offal (9.2%), preserved fruit (9.0%) and confectionary products (8.8%). Prices fell for 15 categories, with the largest drops for flours (-6.1%), olive oil (-4.2%) and jams and marmalades (-3.0%).
Long-Term Predictions
Before the latest inflation data was released, industry leaders warned food price rises may not reach the worst-case scenario but will run into 2028. The Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) expects food inflation to average 3.2% to 4.2% next year, and 2.3% to 3.3% in the first half of 2028. The latest predictions suggest households with children would need to find around £203 extra for food and drink this year, as well as another £207 for next year.
Overall Inflation Steady
Overall, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation remained unchanged at 2.8% in May, lower than economists' prediction of 3%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said inflation held steady as higher transport costs were offset by the easing in food price rises. ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “After last month’s slowdown, inflation held steady in May as various price movements offset each other. The main upward movement came from transport with airfares, vehicle taxes and petrol prices all pushing up inflation. These were offset by lower food prices, with decreases in inflation seen across a range of meat, dairy and vegetable items compared to last month, as well as the cost of domestic heating oil, which fell back after climbing in recent months.”
