The Met Office has confirmed that the UK will remain "very warm" from the end of September and into October, with temperatures expected to be "above average for the period as a whole." The long-term forecast for autumn suggests the unseasonably warm start to the season will continue.
Forecast for late September and early October
For the period September 30 to October 9, the Met Office forecast states: "The wettest and windiest conditions will tend to be most frequent across western areas, with longer drier interludes most favoured in the far east and southeast, where it may be very warm at times."
"Into October, high pressure to the northeast of the UK may become more influential on the weather, with some longer drier interludes focused more across the north and northeast of the UK, whilst occasional rain may tend to be more prevalent towards the south and west. Temperatures are expected to be above average for the period as a whole."
Outlook for the rest of October
The forecast for October 10 to 24 reads: "Initially, high pressure may be centred to the north or northeast, with longer drier periods more likely across northern UK, whilst low pressure to the southwest brings occasional rain or showers into more southern and western parts."
"Towards and beyond mid-October, it may turn more widely unsettled with a greater chance of wet and windy conditions at times. Temperatures will likely be above average for the period as a whole."
Recent heat and drought conditions
The long-term forecast comes just days after weather experts said there were emerging signals for increasingly wet and windy weather next week. Temperatures for the tail end of this week will be "exceptionally warm" for the time of year, forecasters said.
Temperatures peaked on Friday (September 25) at 27C to 28C in parts of the South East, and this comes as much of England, including London and the South East, remain in drought. This follows an extremely dry spring and summer marked by successive heatwaves, putting extra pressure on water resources.
The Met Office said there are emerging signals for "increasingly wet and windy weather next week," with forecasters noting increasing signals of a period of wet and windy weather on Tuesday and into Wednesday. There is also the chance of some coastal impacts in the west and south-west, but then things could heat up again.
Mr Holley said: "While details are naturally uncertain at this range, a particularly deep area of low pressure could pass close to the UK during the first half of next week."
