The Met Office has weighed in on the possibility of a deep freeze sweeping the UK in the wake of the El Niño weather phenomenon. Forecasters are anticipating a wet and stormy autumn that could transition into a freezing winter after the "super El Niño" shattered global records to become the most powerful event in history.
The global weather phenomenon occurs every few years in correlation with the warming of the sea surface temperature. The effects of El Niño often peak during December, with the 2026 El Niño looking to be particularly significant.
Global impacts and human effects
The effects of El Niño are visible across the world, associated with widespread changes in the climate system. The Met Office said it can lead to significant human impacts affecting things such as infrastructure, agriculture, health and energy sectors.
The Met Office stated "it was too far away to give any forecast information" about whether a polar vortex could affect the UK and it remains "just one possible outcome dependent on many competing factors".
Unprecedented event
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range predictions at the Met Office, said: "We have been signalling for months that the developing El Niño will be an unprecedented event. The fact that it has already exceeded previous records – with several weeks to go before it peaks later this year – shows the enormity of this El Niño."
"Scientists are still assessing whether the impacts will be in proportion to its magnitude, but we are already seeing expected effects worldwide."
Polar vortex and winter outlook
Forecasters warned the phenomenon could disrupt a large, high-altitude ring of swirling cold winds spinning above the Arctic known as the stratospheric polar vortex. These disruptions can weaken the jet stream, sending severe, freezing Arctic air plunging southward into North America and Europe.
However, if this happens, it is more likely to trigger freezing temperatures later on in winter, meaning a polar vortex remains unlikely to sweep the UK this autumn.
The Met Office said that over the coming season, the phenomenon is likely to cause "wetter and stormier conditions" that could develop into "cold snaps" over the winter. The early winter period could be "milder than normal", the Met Office has said. But as El Niño peaks, the latter part of the season could see the stratospheric polar vortex weaken, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming, making cold weather more likely.
