The Met Office has issued a significant update on UK snowfall prospects as El Niño continues to strengthen rapidly ahead of reaching its peak in the coming weeks.
Occurring every two to seven years, an El Niño event is a natural climate pattern characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and east-equatorial Pacific Ocean. In recent weeks, numerous experts have issued warnings about its anticipated major impact expected in late 2026.
El Niño and the polar vortex
El Niño 'tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter', according to a research paper previously published by the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory.
The polar vortex is a band of powerful westerly winds that circulates around the North Pole high in the stratosphere, keeping bitterly cold air contained near the Arctic. When weakened or disrupted, however, the vortex becomes 'wavy', allowing freezing air to push southward into mid-latitude regions such as North America and Europe, reports the Manchester Evening News.
Should this occur, the UK would likely face severely windy conditions, with some experts suggesting it could bring cold spells and snowfall to Britain over the months ahead. Following a record-breaking summer in terms of heat, many members of the public are now wondering whether the country is in for a white Christmas.
When the Met Office says snow
A Met Office spokesperson has stated that 'for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow', adding: "We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December."
With snow actually settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 - 2020 long-term averaging period).
El Niño 'strengthening rapidly'
In its most recent update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that sea-surface temperatures are forecast to climb to 'record levels' across the central and eastern tropical Pacific during the final three months of the year, reflecting the 'strengthening of the El Niño event'.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."
According to Ms Saulo, 13 national and international centres reached that consensus, with the forecast drawing upon real-time data gathered from ocean buoys, satellites and radiosonde instruments. The seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly is predicted to hit roughly +3.7C, with its highest point expected around December.
The earlier record stood at an average of +2.6C, registered between November 2015 and January 2016.
Meanwhile, the Met Office noted that numerous extreme cold and winter snow incidents have been associated with the surface impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings. These encompass the notorious snowy periods of 2009, 2010 and 2013, along with the 'Beast from the East' in 2018.
For those unfamiliar, the 'Big Freeze of 2010' occurred during an El Nino event. This marked the coldest winter in thirty years at that point.
Regarding the 'Beast from the East', it brought sub-zero temperatures and substantial snowfall in late February, persisting into early March.
