The Met Office has issued a verdict on the chance of El Niño causing wetter and stormier conditions in the UK over autumn and winter. El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can impact weather around the world, though severity varies from event to event.
Unprecedented event warning
The Met Office has previously warned that 2026 is set to see the development of the largest El Niño in living memory, and probably the largest such event since the 19th century. Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, warned: "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event.
"I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2C being a really big event."
He added: "This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences."
Storm season variability
Looking back at the 2025 to 2026 storm season, the Met Office explained that even a relatively quiet year for named storms can still bring significant and memorable weather across the UK. Met Office scientist Dr Emily Carlisle said: "The number of named storms can vary considerably from one season to the next. Some years bring a succession of impactful storms, while others are much quieter, reflecting the natural variability of the UK’s weather and its position in the North Atlantic storm track.
"A quieter season does not mean there is no risk from severe weather. Even in a year with fewer named storms, an individual event can still bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall, flooding or snow, as several of the storms during 2025/26 demonstrated."
El Niño's influence on UK weather
On whether El Niño is likely to bring more storms this autumn and winter, the Met Office says that El Niño typically increases the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions in the UK during late autumn and early winter, though its precise influence on this year's weather will become clearer as forecasts evolve.
El Niño events also drive an increase in global average temperature. Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s Chief of Science and Technology, said: "This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change, this large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change."
The Met Office says the El Niño is set to peak in winter - and will likely increase the chances of wetter and stormier weather throughout autumn and early winter.
Global impacts expected
Commenting on the Met Office blog post, Prof Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards, UCL, said: "The astonishing and unprecedented amount of heat building across the eastern Pacific Ocean is all but certain to make this the most powerful El Nino in living memory – possibly even the biggest in several centuries.
"The addition of much of this heat to the atmosphere will make it extremely likely that next year will be the hottest on record globally, perhaps even reaching – even exceeding – 1.7C above pre-industrial times.
"The knock-on impacts on global weather patterns are also expected to be huge – bringing drought and wildfire conditions to the Amazon and parts of Australia, torrential rainfall and floods to California, and a reduced South Asian monsoon."
