The Met Office has issued an update on whether the UK could experience another heatwave in August. The scorching temperatures began with a late May heatwave, followed by another in June, when temperature records for the month were broken. The mercury rose as high as 37.7C in Norfolk, climbing well above the previous June record of 35.6C set in Southampton in 1976. Early July brought another heatwave, which lasted up to two weeks in some places, according to BBC Weather.
Large parts of Britain continue to see long sun-soaked days, though not yet meeting the Met Office definition of a heatwave. The agency declares a heatwave when there is "an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year, which may be accompanied by high humidity." The heat thresholds vary depending on location, with southern areas tending to be warmer.
Potential for Further Heatwaves
The Met Office has examined whether additional heatwaves could occur before the end of August. Its "latest longer-range outlook suggests that while conditions are expected to stay unsettled at first, there are signs of a shift towards more settled and warmer weather as August progresses, with the potential for further heatwaves later in the period."
"The key message is that further heatwaves are possible but not guaranteed," the agency wrote in a blog post published on Tuesday, July 21. "The longer-range outlook indicates that temperatures are likely to be above average overall, with a risk of hot weather and heatwaves later in August."
Uncertainty Remains
However, the Met Office cautioned that at this range it is not possible to pinpoint where any heatwave conditions would occur, "how intense they might be, or how long they could last."
"Heatwave development will depend on the position and strength of high pressure, the source of the air moving across the UK, and whether any Atlantic or thundery interruptions break down the warmer pattern," it explained. "So, while the end of July and start of August look a little more unsettled, the chance of more notable warmth increases later in August."
The Met Office says a "transition from mixed weather at first towards something drier, warmer and more settled as the month goes on" is the most likely outcome at present. "For now, the outlook suggests the heat could return, particularly later in August, but any further heatwaves will depend on how strongly high pressure develops and how persistent that pattern becomes."
