The Met Office has provided a major UK snow update as El Nino continues 'strengthening rapidly' ahead of reaching its peak in the coming weeks. Occurring every two to seven years, an El Nino event is a natural climate pattern characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and east-equatorial Pacific Ocean. The past few weeks have seen multiple experts issuing warnings ahead of its big impact set for late 2026.
Polar vortex breakdown risk
El Nino 'tends to promote the breakdown of the polar vortex, especially in late winter', a research paper published by the US government's NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory previously stated. The polar vortex is a band of strong westerly winds that circles around the North Pole high in the stratosphere and traps bitterly cold air near the Arctic. However, a weakened or disrupted vortex becomes 'wavy' and allows cold air to spill southward into mid-latitude regions like North America and Europe.
If this was to happen, the UK would likely have to face extremely windy conditions, with some experts noting that it would bring cold and snow to the UK over the coming months. Following a record-breaking summer in terms of heat, members of the public are beginning to question if it will be a white Christmas.
When snow is most likely to hit UK
A Met Office spokesperson has said that 'for most parts of the United Kingdom, Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it's likely to snow', saying: "We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December. With snow actually settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March (1991 - 2020 long-term averaging period)."
El Nino 'strengthening rapidly'
In its latest update, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that sea-surface temperatures are expected to rise to 'record levels' in the central and eastern tropical Pacific in the final three months of the year. This reflects the 'strengthening of the El Nino event'. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."
According to Ms Saulo, 13 national and international centres came to that consensus. The prediction is based on the real-time exchange of ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data. The seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately +3.7C, peaking around December. The previous record was when an average of +2.6C was recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
Meanwhile, the Met Office stated that several extreme cold and winter snow events have been linked to the surface effects of sudden stratospheric warmings. These include the infamous period of snow in 2009, 2010 and 2013, as well as the 'Beast from the East' in 2018. For those who don't recall, the 'Big Freeze of 2010' coincided with an El Nino event. This was the coldest winter in three decades at the time. As for the 'Beast from the East', it saw freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall arrive in late February, sticking around to early March.
