El Niño is "strengthening rapidly" just weeks ahead of its anticipated peak in December, forecasters have warned. As a result, Brits are being urged to prepare in advance for the significant weather disruption that may wreak havoc on their homes.
What is El Niño and What Could It Mean for the UK?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years when temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific climb 0.5C above the long-term average, influencing weather patterns across the globe. It can increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, during autumn and early winter, while also potentially heightening the risk of cold spells in late winter.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated in its most recent update that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach "record levels" in October, November and December.
Record Temperatures and Official Warnings
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said last week: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."
Between October and December, the seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly is predicted to reach around +3.7C, with its peak expected in December. This would mark the highest level on record, exceeding the previous peak of +2.6C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
How to Storm-Proof Your Home
In the wake of El Niño warnings, an increase in Google searches regarding home insurance in relation to weather disruption have also jumped. As the public grows increasingly concerned about severe weather impacts on their properties, AA Insurance has shared some tips on how to properly prepare.
To protect against storm damage, Brits are being told to follow this ten job check list:
- Store garden furniture away
- Clear gutters
- Insulate external pipes
- Clean leaves and debris from the garden
- Check roof for signs of damage
- Seal draughts around windows
- Check drains
- Check pipes for leaks and cracks
- Inspect chimney
- Check garden fencing
Government and Met Office Response
It comes as security Minister Dan Jarvis stated he wants to guarantee communities are as resilient as possible, acknowledging there are likely to be "a number of challenges" confronting the nation this winter.
The Met Office states that the weakening of the polar vortex, a band of strong westerly winds surrounding a pool of cold air high in the stratosphere, "may raise the chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, which can increase the potential for cold weather." The national forecaster adds that numerous extreme cold and winter snow events have been connected to the surface impacts of sudden stratospheric warmings, including those in 2009-10 and 2013, as well as the "Beast from the East" in 2018.
The government will shortly launch a nationwide campaign to make sure Britons are aware of the appropriate supplies, escape routes or emergency contacts they should have.
