Forecasters have issued a warning as El Nino is “strengthening rapidly.” El Nino is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average. The phenomenon is felt strongly in the tropical eastern Pacific with warmer than average weather, but it will also have lasting impacts across the globe.
Met Office warns of wetter, stormier UK conditions
The Met Office said: “The El Niño is now growing towards its peak in winter, and the impacts will affect not only the tropics but also the mid latitudes and so southern Africa and north-east Australia are expected to be at heightened risk of drought.”
“Closer to the UK, we expect the influence of El Niño to start to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for NW Europe, including the UK, in the coming autumn and early winter.”
2026 El Nino could be strongest since 1950
The 2026 El Nino is expected to peak in the next few months and is potentially one of the strongest since 1950. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to increase to record levels during October-November-December 2026.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the phenomenon will drive weather patterns and impact economies, ecosystems and communities across the globe.
Above-average temperatures likely this winter
Sea-surface temperatures are increasing across the central-eastern Pacific. The WMO said: “El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface - which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured.”
Forecasters have suggested the UK could see above-average temperatures this winter, but it is hard to determine the exact effects in the UK just yet. The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicted an “overwhelming likelihood” of above average temperatures across large areas in October to December.
It added: “This does not mean every location will be warmer than average every day, but it indicates a strong seasonal signal that raises the likelihood of heat extremes and heat-related impacts.”
People across the world should expect shifts in rainfall patterns. Some areas will see above-average rainfall and “wetter than normal” conditions.
Met Office verdict on 'unprecedented event'
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.”
“A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1-2 degrees, with 2oC being a really big event.”
“This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences.”
2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record, as more heat is released from the ocean, leading to an increase in global average temperature.
