Britain's stretched Armed Forces would struggle to thwart waves of Russian drones if Vladimir Putin ordered an attack, an expert has warned. Former Army intelligence officer Philip Ingram said UK bases would be "most vulnerable" if the Russian despot gave the green light to an attack.
He said Britain has "no capability really to deal with a mass drone threat", while also expressing concerns over anti-missile defences. Mr Ingram said Russia could target the UK by amassing missile-armed ships in the Atlantic off the Irish coast or replicate Ukraine's Operation Spider's Web by smuggling explosive drones into British ports.
Grey-zone attack '100% likely'
Mr Ingram ruled out Russia launching a conventional attack on NATO. He said any attack would likely lie within the grey-zone — action that falls below the threshold of armed conflict — such as cyberattacks or sabotage. He said he views such an incident as "100% likely", but a conventional assault is not on the cards.
"Putin is not stupid," Mr Ingram told the Express. "He's not going to attack NATO in a conventional way, unless he's gone completely bonkers — which he might have done."
The expert added: "What the Americans have probably done is picked up an increase in the amount of traffic suggesting the Russians are going to increase this sort of [grey-zone] activity. And that is one of the reasons why the head of the CIA might well have gone to Moscow to turn around and say, 'dial it back, otherwise we'll get engaged'."
Conventional assault ruled out
Mr Ingram said Mr Putin is unable to order a conventional attack because all of his assets are tied up in the Ukraine war effort. "He hasn't got anything left in the pot," the former officer said. "Putin knows that if he did anything that would trigger Article 5, then he can forget about his war in Ukraine. That's the end for Russia."
It comes amid reports CIA Director John Ratcliffe used his surprise Moscow visit to warn Russia against attacking NATO, in particular the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. American intelligence previously said Russia could be planning an attack on NATO territory to test the alliance's resolve.
Ukrainian intelligence believes the Kremlin could mobilise up to half a million people after Russia's parliamentary elections next month. Moscow's forces still have not made a breakthrough in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region and continue to suffer heavy casualties. Russia is believed to be suffering more than 30,000 casualties each month.
Pressure on Putin grows
It is thought Mr Putin is facing growing pressure to make greater progress in the war with the effects of the conflict increasingly being felt by ordinary Russians. Ukraine is regularly carrying out long-range strikes across the country, with its campaign against oil infrastructure causing widespread fuel shortages while hitting the Kremlin's coffers.
