Experts have identified key developments suggesting Vladimir Putin has become increasingly desperate in his war against Ukraine, with potentially dire consequences for Europe.
Russia's so-called special military operation, which Putin infamously thought would see Kyiv fall within days, is now making only creeping gains at a bitter cost to human life. Ukraine's long-range drone and missile campaign is placing greater pressure on the Russian leader as the realities of the brutal war are increasingly felt by the Russian public. Crushing strikes on oil facilities have damaged the Kremlin's war machine coffers while sparking fuel shortages. Internet shutdowns, soaring inflation and increased international isolation are also growing issues.
Putin is said to be under growing pressure to end the war, and it appears he has become increasingly desperate. From rising fears of intensified sabotage to mass mobilisation, these are the five signs the Russian despot is panicking - and why it could be bad news for Europe as a whole.
1. Horror nuclear threats
The Russian president and his Kremlin allies have regularly rattled the nuclear sabre since February 2022, in a warning to the West over its military aid to Ukraine. But in recent months, these warnings have gone up a notch as Moscow seeks to weaken European support.
Just last week, the Kremlin made probably its strongest nuclear warning yet. In a "non-paper" memo to NATO, Russia said it is ready to use its "entire arsenal", including nuclear weapons, if the alliance threatened its Kaliningrad exclave.
Retired British Army colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon said while the ramped-up rhetoric is a sign of increasing desperation, Putin has actually "blown his nuclear card". The former commander of UK and NATO Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) units added: "He's said it so often. That idiot [former president and Putin ally - Dmitry] Medvedev says it every day."
Mr de Bretton-Gordon claimed "nobody believes" Russia's "desperate sabre rattling". He continued: "I think things are getting desperate. I think in the past Russia has felt that [with] Western leaders, particularly the Europeans, you mentioned 'nuclear' and they scuttle back in their bunkers. Well, I don't think they're quite as timid as they used to be. He's fired that shot and nobody really believes it anymore."
2. Growing reliance on North Korea
For much of the war, Russia has leaned on North Korea for military kit and additional troops. But Philip Ingram, a former Army intelligence officer, said Moscow is now increasingly relying on Pyongyang for supplies.
"That's another indication of Putin's desperation," he told the Express. "He is relying on ballistic missiles coming from North Korea, he's relying on artillery shells coming from North Korea. That shows his defence industrial base hasn't got the capacity to keep up with what's needed from the conventional military perspective."
However, the retired senior officer said Moscow is still capable of producing huge amounts of weapons such as Shahed kamikaze drones. Jet-powered versions of the drones have been used extensively to target Kyiv in recent weeks. An estimated 11,000 North Korean soldiers have fought for Russia against Ukraine.
3. Mass mobilisation
Russia's so-called meat grinder tactics have seen its forces suffer an astonishing number of casualties during the war. There are growing fears Putin is planning on ordering a new mass mobilisation to help bolster Russia's frontline forces which are suffering mounting losses - around 40,000 a month - in exchange for minimal progress.
Putin has so far resisted mass mobilisation due to concerns it would be deeply unpopular. However, analysts and intelligence agencies have suggested preparations are being made after the Russian despot's party won a record majority in last month's parliamentary elections.
Mr de Bretton-Gordon said many believe mass mobilisation could be the "final straw that breaks Putin". He said: "If he wants to keep going without a radical change, in other words, nuking or whatever else, then mass mobilisation really is his only way forward."
Mr Ingram added: "The mobilisation plans are a sign of desperation. It's a sign of the fact that the Russians are running out of troops on the frontline. Not only are they running out of troops on the frontline, but the Ukrainians are now not quite running rings around them, but are once again pushing the Russians back at a tactical level."
Putin's last mobilisation - a partial mobilisation to be specific - came in 2022 and saw 300,000 reservists called up. Russia has already confirmed plans to conscript 120,000 men before the end of this year. Military officials said the conscripts will not be sent to Ukraine, however Russia has admitted some have previously been deployed to the frontline. Western officials recently said Russia is losing around 6,000 more troops in Ukraine each month than it can recruit.
In September, Britain's military chief said the Russian military has suffered 1.5 million casualties in Ukraine, including half a million soldiers killed. Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton said the vast majority of losses have occurred since January 2023, during which Russia has gained just 2% of Ukrainian territory.
4. Russia and its allies
Mr Ingram said Kazakhstan's "open criticism" of the Ukraine war is a sign some of Russia's key allies could be turning against Moscow. He said Putin was "clearly uncomfortable" with comments by Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Speaking alongside the Russian president at a Russian-Kazakh summit in Siberia's Omsk in July, Mr Tokayev said: "It is a shame, young people are dying... All this has to be stopped." Kazakhstan is an ally of Russia, but has never supported its invasion which has angered Kremlin partners in the region.
Meanwhile Indian PM Narendra Modi, an ally of Putin, has renewed calls for the fighting to stop. India has maintained a neutral stance on the war and has signalled it wants to play a bigger role in ending the conflict.
Mr Ingram also noted China's apparent unwillingness to build a new gas pipeline between the two countries as a blow for Russia. Moscow's oil revenues have already been hammered by sanctions and Ukrainian strikes.
Mr Ingram added: "I know from other sources that Xi Jinping is more than happy to buy cheap Russian gas. But he's not going to pay for the infrastructure to get it piped to China, given the fact the Ukrainians can disrupt that infrastructure across the board."
5. Hybrid threats to Europe
European allies are warning of increasing hybrid threats from Russia following a series of incidents, particularly in the Baltics and Poland, that have been blamed on Moscow. Officials say the hybrid attacks - action that falls below the threshold of armed conflict - are aimed at weakening support for Ukraine.
Mr Ingram said the surge in incidents is an indicator of growing Russian recklessness to make progress in its war. He said the "increase in volume" highlights the Kremlin's desperation and warned of further action against Europe.
The retired colonel said Moscow will keep probing NATO defences until the alliance takes a tougher stance. He added: "Putin will keep upping the ante until he gets to a point where NATO bites back. From a political perspective, that's going to take quite a way for NATO to bite back. [Putin] knows that the more he does that, the more disruption there will be in NATO's political ability and military ability to support Ukraine."
He said the alliance's response to the incidents has so far been "found wanting". NATO and EU chiefs warned Russia is becoming increasingly brazen after Germany blamed Moscow for an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in August.
Meanwhile, Estonian authorities last week said an arson attack on a defence firm supplying vehicles to Ukraine was an act of sabotage, commissioned by Russian security services. Mr Ingram said he expects to see a "ramping up" of such incidents.
