The Met Office has issued an update on the polar vortex, warning that the incoming “Godzilla” El Niño could bring unprecedented levels of cold, snow, and blizzards to the UK this winter. Described as potentially the “largest” weather event in “living memory,” the natural climate pattern is set to hit Britain off the back of a record-setting hot summer.
Unprecedented El Niño signal
El Niño, a natural climate pattern characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, could be one of the worst on record, according to experts. It is likely to cause wetter and stormier conditions across northwest Europe, including the UK.
Forecasters say atmospheric waves triggered by El Niño can destabilise the polar vortex, further increasing the likelihood of heavy snowfall, experts have now warned.
Forecasters' warnings
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts. A typical El Niño leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between 1 and 2 degrees, with 2°C being a really big event."
He added: "This implies that if the forecast is accurate - and other forecast systems show similar extreme values - then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences. We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event."
Weather experts have warned that it is twice as likely that October to December will be wetter than normal, with high winds also expected.
Impact on winter weather
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean when sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become significantly warmer than average, altering atmospheric circulation patterns and impacting weather conditions across the globe.
Dr Will Lang, chief forecaster at the Met Office, described it as a "subtle shift in the odds" rather than a definitive prediction of wetter, milder and windier conditions.
A Met Office spokesperson added: "Through the latter part of the winter, following a peak in El Niño, the stratospheric Polar Vortex can become weaker, leading to an increased chance of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events unfurling, increasing the potential for cold weather."
