Weather maps indicate that the UK could experience its hottest day of the year so far before the end of July, with 15 counties potentially seeing temperatures as high as 38°C. This would surpass all three heatwaves already recorded in 2026, with the current record standing at 37.7°C in Lingwood, Norfolk on June 26.
Forecast Details
According to the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model, temperatures are expected to climb back into the 30s on July 27, peaking at 33°C across western England and reaching 32°C across much of the south. Conditions will intensify on July 28, with 35°C expected across southern and western England, 34°C in the Midlands and eastern regions, and highs of 31°C in northern areas.
July 29 is forecast to be the most sweltering day, with the mercury soaring to 38°C across vast stretches of western, central and eastern England. The GFS model predicts highs of 37°C from the south all the way up to Yorkshire. Temperature anomaly maps for July 29 show England and Wales shaded in dark red, indicating temperatures well above the seasonal average.
Counties at Risk
The GFS model run suggests as many as 15 counties could reach 38°C on July 29. These include: Lincolnshire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Cambridgeshire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Gloucestershire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Oxfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, and Berkshire. Temperatures on Merseyside are expected to reach around 32°C.
Met Office Outlook
The Met Office stated it is too soon to say whether heatwave conditions will last beyond the next 10 days and towards the end of July. However, the forecast for July 22 to July 31 says more "above average" conditions are possible. For the North West this week, patchy cloud on Sunday morning will clear to give blue skies and strong sunshine, with temperatures in the low to mid 20s Celsius. Monday will be dry with plenty of sunshine, and the rest of the week is set to be largely dry with varying amounts of cloud and sunny spells, with a few showers possible on Wednesday.
