Australia's Socceroos have been given a near-94% chance of advancing to the World Cup knockout stage, according to simulations by sports data agency Opta. Even a narrow defeat against Paraguay in their final group match should be enough to earn a place in the last 32, where Belgium may await.
Supercomputer projections
In almost 94% of Opta's simulations, Australia will progress to the round of 32. At the tournament's start, Opta assessed Australia's chances at 59%, highlighting the importance of their three points against Turkey. Currently second in Group D, a draw against Paraguay would secure an automatic berth, with Opta giving that likelihood at 61%.
Opta's "supercomputer" uses betting market odds and recent performances to simulate the tournament thousands of times, updating projections after each match. According to the simulations, Spain wins the World Cup in nearly 14% of scenarios.
Match dynamics against Paraguay
The Socceroos face Paraguay on Thursday (Friday AEST) in a match where a draw suits both teams. Paraguay, lower-ranked, would also likely progress with a point as one of the best third-placed sides, finishing with four points—a total that almost guarantees advancement. If the score is level in the second half, both teams may lack motivation to chase a winner, risking criticism for not pursuing victory.
Outcomes and probabilities
If Australia loses by a single goal, they would have a 96% chance of progressing as one of the eight best third-placed sides, according to Football Meets Data. However, if Paraguay concedes while seeking victory, their chance drops to 73% with a one-goal loss, leaving them on three points and a goal difference of minus three.
Under the most likely scenario—Australia finishing second in Group D—they would face the second-placed team from Group G in Dallas on Friday 3 July. That team could be Egypt, Belgium, Iran, or New Zealand. Egypt's 3-1 win over New Zealand makes them favourites to top the group, while Belgium is most likely to finish second, according to Opta (58% of simulations).
If Australia loses and qualifies as a third-placed team, they would face the winners of Groups E, I, or K, potentially clashing with contenders like Germany, France, or Portugal.
