Aviation expert Prof Richard Curran has warned that Brits planning holidays abroad face price hikes, increased cancellations, and less choice due to fuel shortages. He advised travellers to "prepare for disruption" until the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz—which accommodates 20% of the planet's oil trade—is lifted.
Worst-Case Scenario for Autumn
Prof Curran told the Daily Star: "A reasonable worst-case scenario for the autumn is an increase in ticket prices of 25%, less choice of destination and flight frequency for passengers, and somewhat increased disruption/cancellation occurrence while the latter will be avoided in the first instance by airlines."
He expects less popular and profitable flights to be cancelled as airlines aim to cut costs. "Airlines are already considering mitigating their exposure to fuel shortages and price increases by removing or reducing the frequency of flights to poorly supplied airports and origin-destination pairings which are least profitable," he said.
Ticket Prices to Rise
The professor estimated that a £100 ticket could cost £125 by autumn. "The airlines would not want to do this as that will reduce customer demand, but their Net Margin Profit is low and of the order of 4% in 2026 and therefore one could expect airlines to pass all this onto the passenger," he explained.
Passengers have already seen price hikes, with the cheapest plane tickets jumping 25% in April compared to a year earlier. On Sunday, panic erupted when Gatwick Airport began "running out of fuel" due to a "temporary technical issue" at a fuel farm supplying the hub.
Continued Disruption Expected
Prof Curran said: "This is likely to continue to happen at Gatwick and other UK airports until the crises is solved and indeed will worsen in the autumn as shortages reflect on actual flight operations and in particular costs being passed on to customers."
He added: "I don't see a massive impact of this being a tipping point, but I see it as a gradually worsening scenario. Holiday makers should plan for disruption in terms of planning extra time at airports, checking their insurance for flights and holiday packages and be aware of the passenger and traveller rights."
