AirAdvisor, a specialist in claiming compensation for delayed or cancelled flights, has analysed data from summer 2025 to identify the European routes most at risk of cancellation. The study focused on routes with over 100 flights a month between UK airports and European tourist hotspots from June 1 to August 31.
Balearic islands dominate rankings
The route between London Luton and Ibiza saw the highest cancellation rate, with over 5% of flights cancelled. Of 105 scheduled flights between June 1 and August 31, 2025, six were cancelled. Other Ibiza routes also featured: London Heathrow to Ibiza had a 1.38% cancellation rate, while London Gatwick to Ibiza saw 0.92%.
Flights to Palma de Mallorca (Majorca) also performed poorly. The London Heathrow to Palma route ranked second, with 14 of 875 flights cancelled (1.6%). Gatwick, Luton, and Birmingham routes to Palma also made the top 12.
Mainland Spain and Portugal affected
For mainland Spain, flights from Bristol and Gatwick to Málaga both featured in the rankings. Portugal also saw risks: the Gatwick to Lisbon route ranked third for cancellations (1.43%), and Gatwick to Faro also made the list.
AirAdvisor noted that the popularity of the Balearics may explain the high cancellation numbers. Palma de Mallorca is one of Europe's busiest summer airports, often welcoming over four million passengers in a single month. When airports are stretched, delays can cascade into cancellations.
Summer 2026 outlook
Data from summer 2026 so far suggests a worsening picture. From Gatwick and Heathrow to Palma de Mallorca, 36 of 1050 flights (3.44%) were cancelled up to July. For Ibiza, 17 of 557 flights (3.05%) from the same airports were cancelled. The worst route so far is London Gatwick to Catania (Sicily), where 6.7% of scheduled services have been axed.
Anton Radchenko, CEO of AirAdvisor, said: "Cancellation risk on UK routes to Europe is not spread evenly, and this summer the Balearics are carrying a bigger share of it than anywhere else."
Passenger rights
Under UK261, if a flight is cancelled less than 14 days before departure, passengers may be entitled to compensation between £220 and £520, depending on the flight distance. Passengers also have the right to be rebooked on the next available flight or to choose a later date. Radchenko advised: "If the airline offers you a voucher, don't accept it before checking what you're owed in cash. Vouchers come with conditions; they expire and taking one can close off your right to claim."
Top 12 routes for cancellations in summer 2025
- London Luton – Ibiza: 5.56%
- London Heathrow – Palma de Mallorca: 1.6%
- London Gatwick – Lisbon: 1.43%
- London Heathrow – Ibiza: 1.38%
- London Gatwick – Palma de Mallorca: 1.31%
- London Luton – Palma de Mallorca: 1.3%
- Bristol – Málaga: 1.2%
- Birmingham – Palma de Mallorca: 1.02%
- London Gatwick – Ibiza: 0.92%
- London Gatwick – Málaga: 0.63%
- London Gatwick – Faro: 0.33%
- London Heathrow – Lisbon: 0.32%
