Meteorologists are warning that a powerful El Niño weather pattern developing in the Pacific could drive global temperatures even higher later this year, with potential knock-on effects for UK summers and winters. The alert comes as NASA satellites confirm that El Niño conditions are now underway, with unusually warm waters forming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
What Is El Niño and How Does It Affect the UK?
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate cycle that shifts between a warming El Niño phase and a cooler La Niña phase. During El Niño, heat stored in the Pacific spreads across the ocean and transfers into the atmosphere, raising global surface temperatures for months at a time. Although the cycle has existed for thousands of years, current measurements suggest Pacific sea temperatures are rising rapidly and could reach between 1.5°C and 2°C above normal in some regions.
While the influence on Britain is not direct, scientists warn that a powerful El Niño can amplify global warming trends already pushing temperatures higher. The phenomenon, which typically occurs every two to seven years, is linked to widespread changes in global weather patterns, including increased rainfall in parts of the Americas and drought conditions in the western Pacific.
Expert Warnings and Predictions
Simon Culling, a data collector and investigator for the UK’s Tornado & Storm Research Organisation (TORRO), warned on social media that the developing system could influence UK weather patterns. He wrote on X: “If the current predictions for the forthcoming El Niño phase are realised, what does this mean for the UK? It may mean hotter summers for both 2026 and 2027 and increases the risk of a significant cold spell in winter 2026/27. Let’s see what plays out.”
The warning comes after the UK saw its hottest June day on record, with 36.1°C recorded in Gosport, Hampshire. Forecasters expect conditions to turn more changeable over the weekend, bringing fresher air, although July is still predicted to be warmer and drier than average.
Comparison to Past Events
Meteorologists say the upcoming El Niño could be comparable in strength to the major 1997/98 event, which contributed to one of the warmest years on record globally and a notably hot, humid UK summer. Grahame Madge, a climate science communicator at the Met Office, previously said the developing pattern could be significant, but stressed it is only one of several factors influencing global weather. He said: “It’s likely to be the strongest El Niño event so far this century. And we're probably comparing it to the 1998 one. This was a significant year for global temperature and at the time, it was the warmest year on record. It's possible we could see some impacts from El Niño, but equally possible that we could see other drivers being more dominant.”
Global and UK Implications
Experts say a strong event could also contribute to extreme heat across much of the world, including indirect impacts on the UK climate. The Met Office has issued a 10-hour thunderstorm warning for 75 areas on Friday, and forecasters expect more heavy rain and thunder in the coming hours. The developing El Niño could exacerbate these patterns, leading to more frequent and intense heatwaves in the UK over the next two years.
