The UK could face another heatwave in August, with weather models predicting temperatures as high as 41C in parts of eastern England. If realised, this would surpass the current UK record of 40.3C set in July 2022.
GFS Model Shows Sharp Temperature Rise
According to the GFS weather model, temperatures are expected to rise steadily from July 29, with highs of 31C possible in southern England. On July 30, highs of 30C are forecast, followed by potential 31C highs in south-western areas on July 31. Wales could also see 30C on that day.
The model indicates a dramatic spike on August 1, with staggering highs of 41C shown in the east of England, from Sussex up to Lincolnshire, including London, which could see 40C. The Midlands may reach 38C, and Yorkshire could see 37C.
Regional Variations
Parts of Wales near the English border could see 31C or 32C, while peak temperatures in Scotland are expected to remain below 30C and below 25C in Northern Ireland. Temperature anomaly maps for August 1 show parts of England shaded in deep red, indicating temperatures significantly above the seasonal average.
Counties at Risk of 40C or More
The GFS model suggests 10 counties in eastern England could see highs of 40C or more:
- Lincolnshire
- Cambridgeshire
- Northamptonshire
- Norfolk
- Suffolk
- Hertfordshire
- Middlesex
- Surrey
- Kent
- Sussex
Met Office Outlook
The Met Office forecast for the rest of July expects conditions to be “warmest in the south”, with potential to become “very warm again by the start of August”. In its August outlook for the north west, the forecaster said: “Higher pressure is considered generally more likely than lower pressure through August. This means settled and dry weather will likely prevail, especially across the south. Some rain is still likely at times, especially across northern parts.”
The Met Office added: “Although many areas may see mainly dry weather for the much of the period, occasional summertime thunderstorms are possible on some days given the right ingredients. Winds are expected to be generally light to moderate, and occasionally fresh around coastal areas. Temperatures will very likely remain above normal, with potential for further hot spells, particularly in the south.”
