Temperatures across the UK have finally dropped after the country endured one of its longest heatwaves on record earlier this month. It was the third heatwave of the year after the mercury soared to record numbers in both May and June.
Temperatures in southern England – where it tends to be hottest – are expected to cap at 28C this week, bringing some much-needed respite. But the cooler temperatures could be short-lived.
When will the UK get warmer again?
According to the Met Office’s long-range forecast, temperatures are expected to be ‘near or above normal’ between July 25 and August 3. Towards the beginning of next month, parts of the UK could start to see warmer temperatures.
Further into August, temperatures are ‘very likely [to] remain above normal, with potential for further hot spells, particularly in the south’. Whether this will amount to a heatwave is unclear.
The Met Office told Metro that while there was no current forecast for another widespread heatwave, there was ‘certainly still time’ for this to change before the summer is over.
Heatwaves commonly occur when high pressure develops across an area. The Met Office says this is ‘considered generally more likely than lower pressure through August’ this year, though this does not guarantee a heatwave.
What is a heatwave?
According to the Met Office, a heatwave is ‘an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year’. For these conditions to be met, an area must see ‘daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold’ for three days in a row – so one hot day isn’t enough to constitute a heatwave.
The threshold also varies depending on where you are – in London and some of the surrounding counties it is 28C, while in Scotland, northern England, Northern Ireland and Wales, it is 25C. These were calculated using the 1991-2020 climatology of daily maximum temperature at the midpoint of the meteorological summer, which falls on July 15.
Why have there been so many heatwaves this year?
Experts agree climate change is making heatwaves more frequent and more severe – hence the record-breaking heatwaves we’ve already seen this year. Some 2,700 excess deaths were recorded from the May and June heatwaves in England and Wales alone, and thousands more people died as a result of excess heat across Europe.
Meteorologist Jim NR Dale, from the British Weather Services, previously told Metro: ‘We live in extraordinarily self-inflicted and dangerous times, with much more to come.’
