The heatwave forecast for this week is expected to be hotter than originally predicted, with temperatures reaching 33C in parts of the UK. London could see 35C after weeks without rain.
Heatwave timeline
A fresh heatwave is forecast from Tuesday July 28 through to Thursday July 30. Temperatures will climb from 29C on Tuesday, peaking at 33C on Wednesday between 4pm and 6pm, before cooling to 28C on Thursday. Initial predictions had suggested a high of 32C.
Health alerts issued
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has upgraded a yellow heat-health alert to amber for the East Midlands, East of England, South East and London from 9am on Tuesday until 9am on Thursday. A yellow alert remains in place for Yorkshire and the Humber, West Midlands and South West regions for the same period. No alert has been issued for the North East and North West.
The UKHSA warned of potential “significant impacts” on health and social care services, including an increase in fatalities among the elderly or those with health conditions, and a surge in drownings.
Long-range forecast
The Met Office’s long-range forecast from August 10 to August 24 suggests further heatwaves could occur, stating: “Temperatures will probably be above normal and some spells of hot weather and heatwaves are possible, especially in the south.”
Record-breaking July
July has been 3C above average across the UK, based on preliminary Met Office data, potentially ranking among the hottest three or four Julys on record. Southern England has received just 1% of its typical July rainfall, England 5%, and the UK overall 20%. Some locations have recorded over 30 consecutive dry days, including Wisley in Surrey with 40 days and Herstmonceux in East Sussex with 37 days.
However, summer 2026 is not a record-breaker for low rainfall. The Met Office figures show 111.7mm of rain so far, wetter than the record dry summer of 1995 (105.9mm) and the drought summer of 1976.
Thresholds may need adjustment
Senior Met Office meteorologist Marco Petagna suggested that UK heatwave thresholds may need to be revised due to the warming climate. He stated: “Going forward they'll need to be adjusted to take into account... current climate, otherwise we're going to more frequently go into heatwaves. It's a moveable thing, really, as we go through a warming world.”
