The United Kingdom is bracing for a significant heatwave this Bank Holiday weekend, with the Met Office forecasting temperatures could soar to 33°C on Monday, potentially breaking the existing May record of 32.8°C. In response, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued yellow heat health alerts for four regions: the Midlands, East of England, London, and the South East.
Temperature Forecast
According to the Met Office, temperatures are expected to climb steadily over the weekend. Saturday could see highs of 30°C, followed by 32°C on Sunday, and a peak of 33°C on Monday. This would surpass the previous May record of 32.8°C, set in 1944. Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster Steve Kocher stated, "It is likely that the May and Spring UK temperature records will be broken over the Bank Holiday weekend."
Heat Health Alerts
The UKHSA has issued yellow heat health alerts for the Midlands, East of England, London, and the South East, effective from 9am on Friday until May 27. These alerts indicate "minor impacts" are likely across health and social services, including increased use of healthcare services by vulnerable people, greater risk to life for vulnerable individuals, and increased potential for indoor environments to become very warm.
Regional Variations
While southern England and the Midlands will experience the highest temperatures, some regions will see cloud and showers. Northern Ireland and western Scotland are expected to have more cloud and occasional rain, with low cloud and sea fog possible along western coasts due to relatively low sea surface temperatures.
Safety Advice
The Met Office has issued guidance for staying cool during the heatwave:
- Keep out of the sun and avoid exercise between 11am and 3pm when the sun is strongest.
- Drink plenty of fluids.
- Close curtains in rooms that face the sun.
- If going out, take water, stay in the shade, wear sunscreen, and a wide-brimmed hat.
For those heading to the coast, the Met Office warns that sea surface temperatures are still low (9°C around Scotland to 13°C around southwest England), posing a risk of cold water shock. The RNLI advises floating on your back if you get into difficulty, and to call 999 or 112 for the Coastguard if you see someone else in trouble.
Record-Breaking Heat and Climate Change
A study published last summer by Met Office scientists found that the chances of surpassing the May temperature record have increased due to climate change. What was once a 1-in-100 year event is now approximately a 1-in-33 year event. The current heatwave is driven by high pressure developing over the UK, causing adiabatic compression and warming of the air.
Extended Forecast
The Met Office outlook for May 26 to June 4 suggests that while temperatures will fall from the weekend highs, fine weather is likely to continue for most places, with above-average temperatures and light winds. Some patchy rain may affect the far north and a few showers in the far south.
