The United Kingdom could experience further heatwaves over the next three months, as the Met Office has forecasted another scorching summer. In its three-month outlook, the Met Office indicated that the probability of a hot summer is above normal, raising the risk of heatwaves and associated impacts.
This follows a record-breaking heatwave that saw temperatures soar to 35.1°C in Kew Gardens last Monday. Some regions enjoyed six consecutive days above 30°C, with both spring and May maximum temperature records being surpassed by more than 2°C.
Drivers of the Forecast
The Met Office attributed the warming trend to the ongoing heating of the UK climate and a likely El Niño event. The chance of a hot June is also higher than normal, though Atlantic frontal systems will bring showers or longer spells of rain at the start of the month. By mid-June, higher pressure and more settled conditions are expected, with temperatures near normal overall.
In the latter half of June, relatively settled weather is likely, with drier conditions across most of the UK. However, towards the end of the month, low pressure may become more influential, particularly in the south, where heavy showers and thunderstorms become more probable. Parts of the south could also experience hot conditions.
Record-Breaking Spring
This spring was the warmest on record for England and Wales, and the third warmest for the UK overall, according to provisional statistics. Met Office scientist Dr Emily Carlisle commented: "This spring highlights both the natural variability of the UK’s weather and the longer-term warming we are observing. While conditions varied through the season, all three months of meteorological spring recorded mean temperatures within the UK’s top ten warmest on record."
She added: "While we expect fluctuations from year to year, this spring shows some of the changes we're seeing in our weather patterns, with more extreme conditions becoming more frequent. The fact that nine of the ten warmest springs in England have occurred since 2007 illustrates this ongoing shift in the UK’s climate."
Five-Day Forecast
Today: A band of rain will move eastwards throughout Wednesday, becoming slow-moving across parts of Scotland. A mix of sunshine and showers will follow, with most frequent showers likely in the north. Hail and thunder are possible for many, and it will be windy for most areas.
Tonight: Further showers or longer spells of rain are likely into the evening and overnight, with some clear spells possible across the east of the country. Remaining rather breezy and mild.
Thursday: Remaining breezy with sunny spells and showers, though these may merge at times to give longer spells of rain, possibly with the odd rumble of thunder. Temperatures near normal.
Outlook for Friday to Sunday: Showers become less frequent on Friday. A spell of rain and stronger winds will arrive on Saturday, with sunny spells and showers returning on Sunday. Temperatures close to or slightly below normal.
