The Met Office has said that summer 2026 is set to be the hottest ever as the forecaster issued an 'extreme' warning for the coming days.
Following months of sunshine and soaring temperatures, the Met Office confirmed on Tuesday (August 11) that the UK is on course to record its warmest summer on record for mean temperature. To break the record, only average conditions are needed for the remainder of August.
According to statistics, the UK's mean temperature for meteorological summer so far currently stands at 16.48°C, which is 1.88°C above the 1991-2020 average. The mean temperature record was only broken last year, when the average was 16.12°C. The remainder of August would only need to average 0.21°C below the 1991-2020 long-term average for meteorological summer to set a new record.
Record-breaking summer likely
A Met Office spokesperson said: "England has recorded a mean summer temperature of 18.19°C so far, 2.46°C above average. The remainder of August would need to be 1.41°C below the summer average for England to equal its current warmest summer on record, also set in 2025.
"In Wales, the mean summer temperature currently stands at 16.80°C, 2.17°C above average. The remainder of the month would need to be 1.40°C below the summer average to equal the existing record."
Interestingly, the famously warm summer of 1976's record is also under threat, with the remainder of August needing to be only 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 maximum temperature average to exceed this.
Extreme heat warning issued
Met Office senior scientist Mike Kendon said: "Another record-breaking summer now looks increasingly likely for the UK, following the second-warmest June, and second-warmest July on record and yet another heatwave imminent.
"We've seen temperatures hit 38°C in June, 35°C in early and late July, and this threshold is looking to be reached again in the next few days. It's worth remembering we also reached 35°C in late May and easily exceeded both the May and June previous all-time temperature records this year.
"These statistics are a clear reminder – if one were needed – of the stark changes that we are seeing in the UK's climate. Looking ahead, forecasts indicate temperatures will remain well above average through much of the coming week, with another spell of heatwave conditions expected to develop in some areas."
He added: "While individual hot spells do not determine seasonal records on their own, sustained periods of warmth throughout the summer have contributed to the exceptionally high average temperatures we've seen so far."
The news arrived on a day where the Met Office issued a rare amber weather warning for extreme heat. Temperatures may peak at 38°C on Thursday (August 14) in parts of the east, south-east and the Midlands. Temperatures have not exceeded 36°C in the UK since 36.4°C was recorded at Heathrow and Kew Gardens back in 2020. The Met Office warning runs from 9am until 11.59pm on Thursday.
Outlook for the rest of August
Looking ahead to the rest of August, the Met Office's long-range forecast shows that high pressure may begin to weaken by the start of next week. There's potential for some showers or longer spells of rain across parts of the UK as a result of this.
Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average. High pressure is expected to become more dominant later in the month, bringing longer periods of dry weather for many, with temperatures likely to be above average.
