Scottish Avalanche Activity Surges with Over 200 Incidents This Winter
Scottish avalanches have returned with a vengeance this winter, with more than 200 recorded incidents, a stark contrast to the previous year's record low of 42. The worst season for fatalities remains 2012-13, when eight people lost their lives, including four buried in deep snow during an unexpected avalanche while descending Glen Coe's Bidean nam Bian.
Fortunately, so far this season, there have been no confirmed avalanche deaths, despite one person being carried down Ben Nevis and two others falling through cornices and triggering slips. However, one individual remains missing on Ben Nevis, with search efforts ongoing in and around recent avalanche sites.
Tragic Global Context and Local Vigilance
In the past month, tragically high numbers of avalanche fatalities have occurred in the Alps and the United States. A recent Californian tragedy claimed nine lives, six of them women, highlighting the severe consequences for mountaineers worldwide.
Tracing its origins back to 1988, the Scottish Avalanche Information Service (SAIS) has for decades published a vital daily avalanche forecast for six separate Scottish mountain areas: Lochaber, Glen Coe, Creag Meagaidh, Torridon, and the northern and southern Cairngorms. This service operates from mid-December until mid-April each year.
Expert Forecasters and Their Critical Work
The SAIS employs 19 highly experienced forecasters, each expert mountaineers with comprehensive training in avalanche science and forecasting. These specialists, who often serve as guides, instructors, climbers, skiers, and volunteer search and rescue team members, venture out daily on skis, snowshoes, or cramponed feet into the frozen wilderness.
They conduct thorough investigations, making general observations, digging snow pits, and inspecting ice crystals with magnifiers to assess conditions. Their goal is to establish the nature, dimensions, and constituents of the snow pack, identifying weak layers that can lead to avalanches.
Understanding Avalanche Triggers and Risks
Forecasters describe weak layers in snow as akin to the jam and cream in a Victoria sponge: tilt the snow sufficiently on a slope, give it a tap, and the top layer may slide off, causing an avalanche. These layers can form from various factors, such as frost on snow covered by fresh falls or windblown slabs.
According to experts, 90% of avalanche victims trigger their own incidents, often accidentally through activities like walking or skiing. Natural triggers include collapsing cornices—snow overhangs on steep ground. Wind slab avalanches are particularly insidious, as they can be triggered remotely with little visible warning, sometimes indicated by a "whumpf" sound signaling weak layer collapse.
Survival Strategies and Historical Insights
If buried in an avalanche, the first 15 minutes are critical, with a 93% survival rate if rescued promptly. After 30 minutes, survival chances drop significantly due to asphyxiation. Companions are crucial, which is why many mountaineers wear transceivers and carry shovels and probes for rapid response.
The late Blyth Wright, first coordinator of the SAIS, co-authored a book titled A Chance in a Million?, challenging the misconception that avalanches only occur in larger mountain ranges like the Alps. This highlights the ongoing need for awareness and preparedness in Scotland.
Adapting to Modern Challenges and Future Plans
Graham Moss, current SAIS coordinator, notes that the service has operated similarly for 40 years, based on historical avalanche data. However, he emphasizes the need to become more reactive to current conditions, especially with the rise in activities like ski touring. Over the next two to three years, the SAIS plans to revamp its communications, including phone apps, online platforms, and social media presence.
Unlike many European countries where forecasters work office-based, Scotland's model involves sending forecasters into the field to personally assess snow conditions. This hands-on approach is deemed essential given the region's rapid variations in temperature and wind speed, which some experts, like pioneer Canadian forecaster Alan Dennis, describe as making Scotland the most exciting and challenging place for avalanche work globally.
As winter continues, the SAIS remains vigilant, providing daily forecasts to help adventurers navigate the risks and enjoy Scotland's majestic mountains safely.
